Gender, court vacancy key issues for Ayotte, Hassan
The latest Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald Poll appears to validate, as a campaign tactic, Republican U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s warm welcome of Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, as 6 in 10 New Hampshire voters favor a confirmation vote for him.
The poll shows Ayotte and her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, in a statistical dead heat — validating the vulnerability Ayotte feels on perceptions of GOP intransigence in filling the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat. Neither candidate will be riding the coattails, it appears, of their party’s presidential nominee, as both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have high negatives among Granite State voters.
Gender-based trends in presidential preferences and political participation show that Ayotte could be limited by Donald Trump’s low support among women, as our polls show that only 3 in 10 likely, female voters support the Republican presidential candidate. If one keeps in mind that, generally, women’s turnout is higher than men’s, these numbers signal that the Hassan campaign will intensify its efforts to link Ayotte to Trump. In turn, we can expect Ayotte to offer, at best, lukewarm support for her party’s nominee in the presidential race.
Where does President Obama fit in? With the FPU/Herald poll showing him at 51 percent approval, it appears neither candidate will gain traction campaigning for or against his record.
Our takeaways on the Senate race: We can expect the Supreme Court and gender to frame major themes in both campaigns. We are sure to hear debate on the nature of the Senate’s “advice and consent” responsibilities. The Supreme Court vacancy has highlighted the 5-4 split that Scalia reliably anchored to his conservative jurisprudence. Accordingly, we can expect Garland’s qualifications, the upcoming docket of cases, and past court decisions to become campaign issues. In this context, given the salience of gender, we may hear more than usual about reproductive freedom, workplace equality and affirmative action.
With the yawning gender gap in support for — or aversion to — Trump, and with his unfavorable numbers equal to Clinton’s, we can expect broad, explicit appeals to women as a voting bloc. With women more attentive to domestic issues over foreign policy, expect the campaigns to highlight candidate differences on domestic concerns such as education, welfare, health care and the state of the economy.