Farrell moves fine in a pinch
Plays percentages in pivotal 8th inning
Let’s clear the air: the Red Sox lost last night to the Tigers, 4-2, because they were 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position and left 11 men on.
A pinch-hit decision did not cost them the game, even though it’s the easiest thing to rant about.
The real blame is with the normally excellent hitters, like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts — who left 10 on base between the two of them. Betts was the final out with the bases loaded in the eighth inning, an inning where only one run scored.
Boga er ts was slapping his helmet and throwing his bat he was so frustrated with himself in his final at-bats.
But that eighth inning was also the frame where many wondered if manager John Farrell did everything possible to help the Sox score — whether Aaron Hill was hurt, because Farrell didn’t use him as a pinch hitter with a lefty on the mound.
Twice, actually, Hill could have pinch-hit with the bags full. He was available — no injury or anything like that.
So was Farrell being a dummy? Why’d Dave Dombrowski go out and trade for Aaron Hill if he’s just going to rot unused? He has a .393 average as a pinch hitter lifetime. What a dummy!
Put your glasses on and take a closer look.
Farrell was turning to a much hotter hand when he pinch-hit Bryce Brentz instead of Hill for Travis Shaw. The more debatable move is when he let Brock Holt bat against a lefty two batters later, but even that’s a pick-your-poison scenario.
Taking it from the top: the bases were loaded with none out with Shaw’s spot due in the lineup. Lefty Justin Wilson was on the mound, and Shaw’s hitting .198 against southpaws. So Farrell rightly yanked Shaw.
But Farrell went to Brentz instead of the veteran Hill. Why?
Had to be because Brentz entered the night hitting .292 in the big leagues this season and .310 vs. lefties, with a .448 slugging percentage to boot. That’s just 31 plate appearances against lefties, but Brentz did much better against them at TripleA Pawtucket too: an .867 OPS vs. a .714 OPS.
Still, Hill’s the reliable veteran, right? He’s also colder than a September night at Fenway Park in 2011.
Hill is hitting .160 since joining the Sox (4-for-25). He has even career splits between lefties and righties, while the pitcher Wilson entered holding righties to a .211 average lifetime compared to .240 for lefties. That gap has played out this year, too.
Brentz was the hotter bat. Wilson pounded him down and in on every pitch and Brentz struck out on a 96 mph fastball. It just didn’t work.
Up came Sandy Leon, who singled — because he’s Sandy Leon — and that brought up No. 9 hitter, Holt.
Farrell let Holt stay in there, even though the left-handed-hitting Holt entered 3-for-23 against southpaws this season. If you’re going to pull Shaw, why wouldn’t you pull Holt? If you think Hill is cold, how do you not say the same of Holt and put in Hill?
Holt came in hitting .311 with a .592 slugging percentage in July. He’s also actually done slightly better in his career against lefties, a .733 OPS vs. .702 OPS. Holt struck out. But you know what would have happened if Hill had gone to the plate? Alex Wilson — the former Red Sox pitcher, and a right-hander — would’ve entered the game. He’s got a 3.29 ERA. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in July.
Alex Wilson does fare worse against righties, counterintuitively. But, with Hill cold, is that matchup definitively better than Holt vs. the lefty Justin Wilson, when Holt has been cold against lefties lately but hot overall? Maybe. “We wanted to keep Brock in the game, as well as Brentz in the event that we come back around with those two spots due up,” Farrell said.
The chances of coming back around were simply bad with one inning to go. The eighth inning was the best chance.
But, if Hill vs. Alex Wilson isn’t appreciably a better matchup, it doesn’t make too much sense to take Holt’s glove out of the game and leave your bench to only Ryan Hanigan, with Michael Martinez entering for the ninth.
There was one out when Holt batted — a sacrifice fly would have helped. Holt has the seventh best contact rate in the majors (minimum 100 plate appearances) at 90.2 percent.
Maybe when Hill shows something in a Sox uniform, pinch-hitting him will be a no-brainer.