Pitfall for Hill: Making Martha’s mistake
Political operatives on both sides of the aisle say Hillary Clinton shouldn’t take her hefty lead in most polls over Donald Trump for granted, to avoid being blindsided by a late Trump surge and sharing Martha Coakley’s fate in her upset loss in the 2010 U.S. Senate race to Scott Brown.
“Just because people are turning off to Donald Trump as a person, doesn’t mean that they’re any less disaffected,” warned Democratic strategist Scott Ferson, former press secretary for U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, whose seat Brown took after his upset defeat of Coakley. “I think we all learned a lesson from Martha Coakley. In about the last two weeks, what was happening was starting to be known, and then it’s too late.
“If somebody’s going to lose this election in the last couple weeks, right now, it’s Donald Trump,” Ferson added, “but Hillary Clinton’s got to make sure that’s not her.”
Clinton is leading by as many as 12 percentage points in much of the recent polling, though several polls have Trump 1 to 2 points ahead. A map maintained by RealClearPolitics has Clinton with a 307-131 electoral vote lead over Trump, with 50 up for grabs. A candidate needs 270 to clinch.
Speaking to reporters Saturday, Clinton said she’s taking her eye off Trump — “I don’t even think about responding to him anymore” — and is focused on helping Dems in down-ballot races.
Brown told the Herald yesterday Clinton is apparently making the same mistake Coakley did against him.
“Martha did it, and she basically didn’t even want to debate me,” Brown said. “It allows Trump to continue to focus, to get his message out, and continue to try to get more and more people out. So we’ll see.”
Coakley declined to comment yesterday.
While some 2010 polls had Brown down by double digits within weeks of the election, he won by five points.
“We had our own internal polls that had us winning or closing, and it was going to be close, and the momentum train had definitely left the station,” Brown said. “From what I’m understanding, Trump has his own polls, and you can see where he’s focusing, where he thinks the race is going to be ... It’s not over till it’s over.”
Democratic pollster Lou DiNatale said, “To a certain extent, you never want your opponent to be able to say, ‘They’re taking this for granted.’ They’ve also got to plan for Trump not going away.”
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said turnout is the wild card.
“The one saving grace Trump really has is the turnout,” he said.
Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told Fox News yesterday polls only account for reliable voters, “not really bringing in people who haven’t voted in a long time, the lapse voters or first-time voters who are truly enthusiastic about Donald Trump as an outsider trying to really shake up the system.”