Pats backers all clean after no late garbage
Garbage-time points can make a sunny day cloudy, a potentially lucrative day empty.
Yesterday’s game between the Patriots and Steelers in Pittsburgh seemed like one of those games. The Steelers trailed by 11 with three minutes to play and had the ball on their own 26-yard line.
With coordinator Matt Patricia guaranteed to call for some version of a prevent defense, Pats backers had visions of a touchdown and the dreaded “back-door cover” by Pittsburgh, which was a 7-point underdog.
Landry Jones dinked and dunked the ball down the field, moving into Patriots territory. A bad gambling outcome was imminent. But the biggest call of the game, if you wagered on the visitors, was an offensive pass interference penalty on Steelers receiver Sammie Coates, which backed Pittsburgh up enough that the Pats defense could clean up from there. The Patriots won, 27-16, covering the spread. No garbage-time disappointment.
My advice last week was to bet on the Pats, who now have covered the spread in three straight weeks. They are 6-1 against the number this season, which means all the homers are beefing up their bank accounts.
Over bettors were in a different boat. They needed a garbage-time touchdown to push the total above the 47-point line, but with no Ben Roethlisberger under center, that wasn’t happening. The under has been the correct call in five of the Pats’ seven games.
So where do we go from here? The Pats go to Buffalo and have opened as 61⁄ 2- point favorites. The revenge factor will be in effect, as their only loss of the season came against Rex Ryan’s crew at home when Jacoby Brissett barely was allowed to throw the ball. The total for Sunday’s game opened at 47.
First things first, there’s no way you can bet against the Patriots next week. The line is relatively low, and with Tom Brady back in control of the offense, they should win easily. The Bills can’t possibly beat them two times in one season, though Ryan’s impression of Bill Belichick would be priceless if it happened.
As for the total, it’s a tough call. It looks like 28-20 will be the magic score for an over. The Pats didn’t exactly tear it up yesterday against a broken-down Steelers defense, and the Bills looked typically mediocre in a loss to the Dolphins in South Florida.
Let’s try the under in this one and hope the Patriots defense swallows up Tyrod Taylor. Hey, maybe LeSean McCoy will sit out with that hamstring injury.
And if the Patriots are ahead 3410 late in the game, let’s hope we get the same garbage-time luck we got yesterday.