Seeds of doubt in NFL playoffs

History shows underdog has path to title

For just the fourth time since the NFL expanded its playoff field in 1990, the divisional round pits the top four seeds in each conference.

The four division winners in action on wild card weekend (the Steelers, Texans, Seahawks and Packers) dominated the opening round of this year’s playoffs. Their wins came by a combined 76 points — a record since the 12team field took shape in 1990. The question now is what does this mean for the next three rounds of this year’s playoffs and for the top-seeded Patriots when they open their postseason against the Texans on Saturday night?

For the Patriots there is reason to be optimistic. Since 1990 the higher seeds in the AFC or NFC have both won on wild card weekend 22 times. In those 22 instances, the No. 1 seed has emerged 14 times to reach the Super Bowl, which is double any other seed.

So that bodes well for the hopes of the Patriots and their fellow top seed, the Dallas Cowboys.

The TV networks who likely dream of a potential matchup between the Patriots and Cowboys in the Super Bowl, however, may be disappointed, as the odds are against such a showdown between the two heavyweight franchises.

In fact, recent history has shown that there is a likelihood for a road team to score an upset win this weekend.

The last three times the top four seeds in each conference advanced to divisional weekend, at least one of the top seeds fell. And each of those times, one of the upstarts that won on the road during divisional weekend went on to win the Super Bowl.

• In 2000, the fourth-seeded Baltimore Ravens, led by Defensive Player of the Year Ray Lewis, notched road wins at Tennessee (divisional round) and Oakland (AFC title game) before taking down the NFC’s top seed, the New York Giants, to win the title.

• In 2006, both the third-seeded Colts and fourth-seeded Patriots scored road victories during divisional weekend. The Patriots beat the top-seeded Chargers, and the Colts knocked off the second-seeded Ravens. Then the Colts, after dispatching the Patriots in the AFC title game in Indianapolis, knocked off the No. 1-seeded Chicago Bears from the NFC in the Super Bowl. • In 2011, the New York Giants faced an uphill battle to reach the Super Bowl, but defeated two powerhouses on the road (the Packers and 49ers) to get there. Then they upended the top-seeded and heavily favored Patriots for the second time in four years in the Super Bowl.

So history indicates there’s a good chance for a No. 3 or No. 4 seed (or two) to win this weekend — and even to reach the Super Bowl. What makes it especially dangerous for some of this weekend’s higher seeds is that the three of the road teams — the Packers, Seahawks, and Steelers — are red hot and enter the divisional round on a combined 18-3 run.

Moreover, it has been unusual over time for higher seeded teams just to roll through the playoffs en masse. Only six times have two No. 1 seeds faced off in the Super Bowl since 1990 -- although three of those six instances have come in each of the past three seasons.

So while the Texans (who lost in Foxboro 27-0 to a Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots team in September) don’t necessarily instill fear in New England fans, the lesson from past years is that the seeds rarely provide a road map to playoff success.

And with several streaking wild card weekend teams getting major confidence boosts while the Patriots enjoyed their weekend off, there’s reason to be wary of the potholes that could lie ahead on the Patriots’ path to the Super Bowl.