Big spread means no bet
Local knowledge says stay away
We begin the new year in the Land of Lopsidedness: The Patriots are 151⁄ point favorites for Saturday night’s playoff special against the Houston Texans.
Or maybe it’s 15 points . . . 16 . . . 14. Depends on where you’re looking, and when. But you get the idea.
It’s not so much a matter of if the Texans will be destroyed, but whether they’ll be carried off the field belly up or head down.
“But this line, whatever it is, it’s gonna go down,” the local bookie tells me as we eat lunch at a Chinese restaurant he visits from time to time. “It’ll change. It’s not gonna be no 15 ’cause if I’m betting myself right now, I’m taking Houston. That’s two touchdowns. I don’t care. I’m winning 15-0 before they kick.”
But the Pats are going to win 45-7.
“You don’t know that,” he said. “And you don’t know what the weather’s going to be. Know what I mean? If it’s a rainy, windy day, now you gotta run the football. The passing game’s all done. They’re probably an even team running. You know what I mean?”
I do, and I don’t. I know the elements often level the playing field. That’s easy. What I don’t know, not really, is gambling.
I played the football card back in high school and went through my Wonderland period for a couple of summers when I was in college. There were Saturday night card games in East Cambridge. I’ve been to Vegas, Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, mostly for the shows but also to hone my blackjack skills. And it is true I have made one very official sports wager in my life: Super Bowl XXVII, Dallas vs. Buffalo. The Cowboys were favored by 61⁄ I went with the Bills, for 100 bucks. Final score: Dallas 52, Buffalo 17.
That’s pretty much my gambling history. So I sought out this guy, this bookie, a friend of a friend. I asked how long he’s been a neighborhood bookie.
“Neighborhood bookie,” he repeated, rolling his eyes. “Whattya want, I’m a small-time bookmaker. Mid-level ... neighborhood ... whatever you want. Either way. I mean, there’s thousands of guys do what I do.”
He got into bookmaking by taking the action and then reporting to a home office. But then he went off on his own. I believe this is how McDonald’s started, only on a larger scale.
“You turn (the bets) in for a while and then you say, ‘What am I doing? Hey, take a shot once in a while,’ ’’ he said. “Hold a couple of them. That’s where you can make some money. If you get $10,000 on each side, how much do you make? You make $1,000 for the day (in juice, or vig), for doing nothing. There’s no risk, if you get $10,000 on each side. Right?
“But the thing is, it don’t always work that way, you know what I mean? You can get carried away. If you start holding too much, you become a bettor. That’s what you’re doing. You’re saying the guy’s not gonna win, and you can start losing big money. You know, the bookies got cleaned out on that 2001 game.”
Ah yes, that 2001 game. He is referring to Super Bowl XXXVI played between the Patriots and St. Louis Rams on Feb. 3, 2002, in New Orleans. The Rams were favored by 14.
“The point spread was so high that (the bookies) started giving a money line out,” my lunch buddy/ bookie said.
A money-line bet removes the point spread from the equation. Instead, you’re betting on which team will win, and the line is built around the money you’re wagering versus the amount of return if your team wins. Thus, the “money line.”
“You put up $100 to win $500, or maybe $100 to win $400, all on the Patriots, and with no point spread,” he said. “They all took that bet because they all thought it was easy money. For the $100 you give them, they’re promising you $500 back. They figured they’d take in your money and they’d never have to pay you because a Pats victory Pause. “But it happened.” Patriots 20, Rams 17. “The bookies were so sure New England could not win, and they got crippled that day,” he said. “Some of them went out of business.” How’d you do? “Lost about $10,000,” he said. “Me and a partner took a couple of money lines and then we stopped. Thank God we stopped. It was getting insane. You know why? I don’t think around the rest of the country they were betting like that, but around here, they were betting with their hearts.
“If you had the brains, you’d never bet the Patriots, right? But Boston fans always bet with their hearts.” And they cleaned up. I considered placing a bet on Saturday’s Pats-Texans game. You know, for research.
But then the check for lunch arrived, as did the fortune cookies. My fortune read, “Today, put away the diplomat and protect your own interests.”
I took that as a sign to stay away from any investment opportunities related to Saturday’s game.
He opened his fortune cookie.
“True bravery is without witness,” he said. What does that mean? “I have no freakin’ clue,” the bookie said. “Which I’m glad. It scares me when I come up with something that’s relevant to what I do for a living.”