No Harmon trusting this pick
Duron Harmon’s name has not come up often in media coverage of the Patriots this season. It has not come up once in this space until now.
While the outcome of last night’s divisional round game against the pathetic Houston Texans rarely was in doubt — even during a shaky, turn-over-marred first half — the gambling verdict hinged on the game’s final moments.
Luckily, the Texans have Brock Osweiler at the helm. One of the worst quarterbacks ever to sign a big free agent contract (four years, $72 million, $37 million guaranteed) completed a pass at the perfect time . . . right to Harmon. The interception preserved the Patriots’ 18-point lead, and a LeGarrette Blount first down finished off a 34-16 victory.
People who bet on the Pats as 151⁄ 2- point favorites had to sweat it out until the end, but the miraculous cover was fitting for an incredibly profitable season. My advice a couple of weeks ago was to take the Pats no matter the number, and they improved to 14-3 against the spread this season. This might have been the most unlikely victory of all, but we’ll take it.
You’ll probably hear a lot of talk this week about how they would have lost if the opponent was any team other than the Texans. Just do what the Patriots do: Ignore the noise. They made some uncharacteristic mistakes — two interceptions by Tom Brady and an ugly Dion Lewis fumble — but this game is in the record books and the rear-view mirror.
I must admit, I really thought karma was going to prevent Stephen Gostkowski from making that 43-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter because the Patriots didn’t deserve to cover. Thankfully, I was wrong. All the homers are making a killing this season, enough to pay off those big Christmas credit card bills.
It was a much less stressful night if you took the over. Lewis, who was featured in the game plan throughout the night, burst over the goal line in the fourth quarter to push the teams past the 441⁄ 2- point total. The over was the correct call for just the seventh time this season.
Once again, the Pats have reached the AFC Championship Game, in which they will host Pittsburgh or Kansas City. Their slight hiccup yesterday might keep the spread from reaching double digits, regardless of the opponent, but expect the line to be a touchdown or better.
And the strategy here is simple. In a season like this, with 14 covers in 17 games, don’t bet against a streak. You’ve likely ridden the Pats to a big pile of cash. With only two games remaining (hopefully), it won’t hurt to keep betting them until they fail to come through.