Artful Codger
Brady is unmatched among the geezer QBs
HOUSTON — Chris Long, who is making the first Super Bowl appearance of his nine-year career courtesy of Tom Brady, is quite sure where Brady stands among NFL quarterbacks, past and present.
“I would take Tom Brady above any living or non-living quarterback,” Long said this week. That would seem to cover the waterfront, and at least in New England, is a nearly universal opinion that will only be further fortified if Brady becomes the first quarterback in NFL history to win a fifth Super Bowl Sunday night.
Yet championships cannot really be the measuring stick because Green Bay’s Bart Starr also won five NFL championships (including the first two Super Bowls), and no one considers him even in the conversation as the G.O.A.T. among QBs.
If the Falcons upset the Pats, that argument becomes even more tenuous as the foundation for a G.O.A.T. appraisal because Brady would remain tied with his boyhood idol Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Sid Luckman and Arnie Herber for most NFL championships won. He and Montana, along with advocates for Johnny Unitas, have been battling it out for half a decade now over who is the all-time best and, some argue, John Elway belongs in the discussion. But Arnie Herber?
Herber won four NFL titles (as many as Brady), three passing titles (one more than Brady), was a member of the 1930s NFL All-Decade team. Perhaps his most famous pass was the first one Don Hutson ever caught, an 83-yard bomb thrown with a ball that resembled a watermelon. You couldn’t have deflated that thing with a hatchet.
Herber was something in his day, as were Luckman, Starr, Bradshaw, Montana and Elway. The same is true now of Brady. But even if he wins his fifth championship he still will be chasing the remarkable Otto Graham’s ring collection. In 10 seasons, Graham led the Cleveland Browns to 10 championship games in a row, won seven and, in his off hours, was part of an NBA championship team as well.
The vehemence with which people will advocate for their choice is what makes these debates endlessly interesting and sometimes vile when conducted on anti-social media platforms. So let’s take the discussion in another direction.
Instead of debating what a fifth Super Bowl championship might mean for Brady’s football legacy, let’s look at a different argument. At 39 years old, is this the greatest single-season performance by an athletic old codger in sports history?
Such a debate involves far fewer nominees than the one over who is the greatest quarterback of all-time. In fact, I would argue there are only two: the 39-yearold Brady and 40-year-old David Ortiz. That is what it comes down to: TB12 or Big Papi.
Despite missing the first four games due to suspension, Brady posted his second-highest completion percentage, 67.4, which is above his career average of 63.8 percent and not far off his 2007 high-water mark of 68.9 percent.
He finished the regular season with the second-highest passer rating of his career, 112.2, which was above his career average of 97.1 and only slightly off his 2007 best of 117.2. Considering he was throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker in ’07 and Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan this year, that disparity seems meaningless.
Add to that an eighth straight Pro Bowl selection, 11-1 regular-season record and being one game from a fifth Super Bowl championship and it seems no one in NFL history ever had a year at that advanced an age like his. To verify, take a look at the accompanying box on Brady’s season compared to six great quarterbacks — five current and one future Hall of Famers — who played regularly at the age of 39.
As you can see, only Brett Favre and Warren Moon approach Brady’s numbers and both played 16 games. Few quarterbacks last as long as Brady has and even fewer while playing at so high a level. Considering the numbers posted by his few peers in both age and production, it is far easier to claim no 39-year-old quarterback ever had a season like Brady’s than it is to proclaim him the G.O.A.T. of QBs. In fact, it appears only one season would be comparable — Favre’s 2009 season when, at the age of 40, he threw for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns, completed 68.4 percent of his passes and had only seven interceptions. It seems fair to argue, however, that had Brady played a full season his numbers would have been comparable at worst and likely better.
Brady has the highest completion percentage and yards-per-pass attempt among those QBs and he set an NFL record for the greatest TD-to-interception ratio in history. Although he missed those four games, his 28 touchdown passes are lower than only Moon’s 33 (and tied with Favre), and Moon threw seven times as many interceptions (14 to 2). If Brady tops the season off by winning Sunday, he will at 39 also tie Peyton Manning as the oldest quarterback to win the Super Bowl. Technically Manning is five months older, but, please. Which brings us to Big Papi. Ortiz led the majors this season in doubles (48), RBI (127), extra-base hits (87), OPS (1.021) and slugging percentage (.620). According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he is the oldest player in baseball history to lead the majors in any of those categories.
Ortiz also set single-season records for RBI, doubles, extra-base hits and home runs (38) by a player age 40 or older. According to Elias, he broke “Shoeless” Joe Jackson’s nearly 100-year-old record for most RBI in a final season (Jackson had 123 in 1920) and set the major league record for the most home runs, doubles and extra-base hits in a final season as well. For you sabermetricians, according to Baseball-Reference.com’s offensive wins above replacement (not including fielding), Ortiz’s number was 5.0. We mention this because Ted Williams’ was 4.8 in his final season.
Putting aside the debate over who is the greatest quarterback of all time, since it is as much a generational argument as a statistical one, who had the greatest season ever at age 39 or older?
It looks like Big Papi, but ask me again Sunday, and the answer may change.