PATRIOTS 5 KEYS TO VICTORY
HOUSTON — It’s been a long couple years, but Tom Brady and the Patriots have their opportunity to shove Deflategate right back in the league’s face. The Patriots, who won Super Bowl XLIX as the investigation was in its nascent stages, can now slam the door on the most frustrating chapter in the organization’s history. The Falcons are the last team to stand in the way of a fifth Super Bowl title and a measure of redemption. Here are five keys to a Patriots victory tonight:
Finding the holes
Tom Brady should have an easy time exposing the holes in the Falcons' zone defense. The Falcons' speed and athleticism gets a lot of deserved credit, but don't overlook their lack of execution in zone assignments, which is typical for a young defense. The Falcons have been vulnerable to crossing routes, especially in tandem, and Brady should get some chances to look off single-high safety Ricardo Allen with some shots up the seams. Brady can't do this if Marcus Cannon & Co. don't neutralize NFL sack leader Vic Beasley and the rest of the front seven, though.
The Falcons do some good things in man-to-man coverage, but they don't use it very frequently. They'll need a backup plan for those extended looks if the Falcons mix it up.
The demolition crew
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked 40 times in 18 games, and his 37 regular-season sacks were tied for the sixth most in the league. The Falcons have the worst offensive line the Patriots have encountered in the playoffs, so they must disrupt Ryan's pocket. The Pats have 21 quarterback disruptions on the 90 opponents drop-backs in the playoffs — with three sacks, nine hits, nine pressures — so they're getting home a bit. But if Ryan has the time and space to throw, he'll have a huge night. The Patriots especially need to generate a push up the middle, so don't be surprised if Trey Flowers gets some extended action over the guards or center.
Power vs. speed
Dion Lewis was the Patriots' workhorse at running back for a four-week stretch before he got just six carries for 11 yards and two catches for 8 yards in the AFC Championship Game against the Steelers, while LeGarrette Blount had 16 carries for 47 yards and a score. It's almost impossible to predict how the Pats will deploy their backs on a weekly basis, but the Falcons have a faster, lighter group in the back seven. Will the Pats counter with Lewis' speed or Blount's strength? As Lewis helps the Patriots better disguise their looks, he might see the greater action, but Blount should have some impactful stretches, too. Mixing it up is the play here.
Bring the fight
The Patriots must be physically imposing on defense, whether they're hitting wide receivers Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel at the line or actively checking running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman out of the backfield. Ryan does a good job at making the responsible plays underneath when linebackers sag off coverage vs. running backs, so the Patriots can't lose Freeman or Coleman. Unless it's third-and-long, the Patriots can't back off the line with their zones over the middle. They might even want to use Patrick Chung in coverage against a back. The Falcons are 4-4 this season against top-15 scoring defenses, so the No. 1-ranked Patriots unit is capable of handling the challenge.
Ball security
Every possession figures to be critical in a matchup between these highscoring offenses, so the winner of the turnover battle may very likely prevail in the game. The Falcons haven't turned the ball over in four consecutive games, and they've had just one giveaway during their six-game winning streak. They've also forced four turnovers in two playoff games. The Patriots ranked third in the league with a plus-12 turnover differential in the regular season, while the Falcons tied for fourth at plus-11. But the Patriots have been fortunate, losing just 10 of their 29 fumbles in 18 games. They were sloppy with three giveaways in the divisional round victory against the Texans, but things ran more smoothly against the Steelers. If the Pats don't turn it over, they'll have a great chance to hoist their fifth Lombardi Trophy.