Wait-and-see approach

Team’s different but maybe not better

FORT MYERS — We don’t know jack about the 2017 Red Sox.

Thanks to anything but a minor injury to David Price’s elbow and the avoidably slow progress of new reliever Tyler Thornburg, the offseason remodeling blueprints remain tightly rolled in the tube.

Maybe this team will eventually wind up better than the 2016 version. But right now? They’re a weaker version. If there’s another conclusion to be drawn on March 23, with less than two weeks to go before the season begins, I’d love to see it. . . . I’m still waiting, and so will the Sox for likely at least another month or so, and that assumes both Price and Thornburg eventually produce as they are expected to. If and when they do, this team could morph into a better, even much better, version than last year’s.

But operating on assumptions, wishes and crossed fingers is a risky business. Here’s why: When David Ortiz retired, the Red Sox decided that replacing the lost run production with increased run prevention was the most prudent tack, given the lay of the free agent and trade lands. The Sox made the fantastic trade for starter Chris Sale, and they traded for Thornburg to be their eighth-inning set-up man.

At first blush, the plan was a sound one.

Adding Sale to the top of a rotation that already included Price and Rick Porcello meant another 200-inning arm, one with lights-out stuff. The Red Sox were going to flood the zone with premium, long-lasting starters, a two-pronged tactic designed to stymie opposing lineups and require less wear and tear on the bullpen. That made plenty of sense. The team still believes it has sufficient starting pitching depth, but there’s a difference between quantity and quality, and both have suffered to varying degrees this spring. All three of the Triple-A Pawtucket starters mentioned by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski as part of the depth equation — Roenis Elias, Henry Owens and Brian Johnson — have either been hurt (Elias) or fallen far short of expectations this spring.

On the big league front, both Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright have answered health questions in the affirmative. It’s too soon to say the same for Drew Pomeranz. And that’s why Kyle Kendrick is, after Sale, the second-biggest blessing in camp.

Porcello, Sale, Rodriguez, Wright and Kendrick or Pomeranz as a rotation is very good, all things considered — when healthy.

But with Price on the shelf, the depth is not there.

Sale replaces Price — and then some, it looks like — but without Price, the rotation is not appreciably better than last year’s. And that wasn’t the plan. Same with Thornburg, who could be ready by Opening Day. But even if he is, it’s going to take some time for him to earn the trust of manager John Farrell as the goto guy for the eighth inning.

Thornburg was going to be the extra, proven arm in the bullpen who would back up closer Craig Kimbrel, followed by the likes of Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and Robbie Ross. But Thornburg misunderstood directions sent by the team about what he should do to prepare for the franchise switch from the Brewers to the Sox in terms of shoulder strength. He took responsibility for the misunderstanding, but really, the team could have as well. That’s spilled milk now, though. The point is the two big run prevention acquisitions in the offseason — Sale and Thornburg — have not led to a new look for the Red Sox.

One plus one does not equal two in their case.

The offense still has tons of talent. The potent blend of youth and experience is still going to rake and rank as one of the better offenses in the league. But without Ortiz, the offense will not be better.

No Ortiz plus no Price plus no Thornburg plus yes Sale adds up to no forward motion.

The Red Sox still are a good team, just like last year’s team.

The problem is they still are too much like last year’s team.