Brexit push has U.K.’s regions in role reversals

Now that British Prime Minister Theresa May has triggered Article 50, many voters in Northern Ireland and Scotland find themselves peering through Alice’s Looking Glass at a transformed world they did not ask to visit.

In a 1975 referendum, the majority of voters in these two British regions voted clearly in favor of exiting the then-European Economic Community, or EEC. Yet, fast forward to 2017, and the irony is inescapable that these very same regions now find themselves pitted against Brexit.

In 1975, nationalist parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland shouted their disapproval from the hilltops, based on three main reasons: the illegitimacy of the London government to act on their behalf, their fear of yet another foreign government controlling their lives and the prospect of heavily subsidized European farmers undercutting British produce and impoverishing farmers.

In Northern Ireland, opposition to ceding power to the Brussels-based EEC featured a particularly local flavor. Some Protestants painted the EEC as a “Catholic conspiracy” and many Catholics believed the EEC was a distraction from a united Ireland. In sum, if the U.K. were to remain in the EEC, it would do so dragging the Celtic periphery along.

However, times have changed and several developments have combined to give the Scots and Irish grounds for a different outlook on membership. First, in 1975, there was no real European regional development policy to speak of, so the Northern Irish and Scots expected no obvious benefit. Why would any reasonable person choose to vote for a foreign trade bloc with no track record in supporting underdeveloped regions?

Today, the European Union operates a broad regional fund with deep pockets, which has invested billions of dollars in its regions. Indeed, over the next five years, the EU had plans to spend a total of $187 million per year on infrastructure development projects in Scotland and Northern Ireland combined. This means that Northern Ireland alone would get over twice the per capita funding going to England.

The story gets even better in terms of direct EU compensation for farmers over the same period, when Scottish and Irish farmers were due to receive three times and five times, respectively, the per capita compensation destined for their English counterparts. After Brexit, this financial vacuum will be London’s responsibility.

Second, since the 1970s, both Scottish and Northern Irish political parties have fought for, and won, limited autonomy, devolution, and their own national parliaments within a more flexible U.K. structure. Today, this fundamentally different scenario allows them a more self-confident relationship with London. Ironically, the EU has actually facilitated this process.

Before membership, regional devolution was unwelcome to the London political elite, afraid of setting in motion an irreversible path towards independence. However, within the broader EU structure, London felt more comfortable loosening some of the ties of domestic union. Moreover, as part of its regional development program, the EU’s direct engagement with regional political parties allowed both Scottish and Irish regional parties to gain political legitimacy, boosting their own local profile and respect as serious players.

In the past few weeks, events in both Scotland and Northern Ireland have demonstrated the very real frustrations of the people there over London’s determination to pursue Brexit without meaningful consideration of all citizens’ views. As a result, London will have to deal with significant threats to its domestic union while negotiating its own national Brexit deal with the EU, the dreaded two-front face-off.

In Scotland, the parliament is already debating its second independence referendum in less than three years. In Northern Ireland, a recent parliamentary election campaign, dominated by the local consequences of Brexit, has elected a clear anti-Brexit majority and radically altered the political order in that region. In contrast to 1975, a majority of inhabitants of both regions now oppose Brexit. Not necessarily born of an idealized love for Brussels, they realize that the EU has benefited their regions financially and politically and, in Northern Ireland, it remains a key pillar of the peace process.

The tale of “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland” concludes with a jury voting on the Queen of Heart’s order, “off with her head.” Many in Scotland and Northern Ireland especially are now left wondering how this Brexit case even got to court.