FORECASTING THE 2017 MLB AWARD WINNERS

Quick, before the first pitch is thrown, let’s take a first and last shot at who’s going to shine the brightest this season in the four major BBWAA awards. There’s no telling year to year if the heavy favorites will come through or fall short. There’s usually somebody that nobody really saw coming — rick Porcello was that guy last year — and then there’s the Clayton Kershaws and Mike Trouts of the baseball world.

This year, my picks aren’t too wacky. let’s make a promise to check back in November to see if the conservative tack was the right one.

AL MVP 3B MANNY MACHADO, ORIOLES

Three alternates: OF Mike Trout, Angels; OF Mookie Betts, Red Sox; SS Francisco Lindor, Indians. Darkhorse: 1B Eric Hosmer, Royals

I know, how can I pick against Mike Trout, the best player on the planet? Or even Mookie Betts, who finished second last year and is going to win this at least once in his career? Francisco Lindor, the best shortstop in the league, how could I not go with him? Any one of those three could explode this season, but I believe the one young player with the best chance of doing so is Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado.

Adrian Beltre prevented him from winning his first Gold Glove last year (based on UZR). Machado is an excellent third baseman, and his off-balance throws from deep in foul territory behind third base, almost in the stands, are already stuff of legend.

With the exception of Josh Donaldson of the Blue Jays, Machado at the plate is the best show in the league. And he won’t even turn 25 until July. He hit career highs in batting average (.294), slugging percentage (.533) and home runs (37) last year, and added 40 doubles. The Orioles still have a good lineup and play in a ballpark where the ball travels well. This is the season where everything could click for Machado.

NL MVP 3B NOLAN ARENADO, ROCKIES

Alternates: SS Corey Seager, Dodgers; 1B Anthony Rizzo, Cubs; OF Bryce Harper, Nationals Darkhorse: OF Christian Yelich, Marlins I obviously have a thing for third basemen this year, but sue me: there’s a great crop of them. Arenado might actually be the best of them all, not that folks from New England get much of a chance to see him play. He’s led the National League in home runs and the majors in RBI the last two seasons, he’s won a Gold Glove in each of his four seasons and he’s turning 26 later this month.

He does hit better in Coors Field, but I’m not holding that against him. If voters could see past the altitude in 1997 and reward Larry Walker for his monstrous year that season, then they could do the same for Arenado, who looks primed to better his already impressive credentials.

In case he can’t, Bryce Harper of the Nationals is never a bad bet when it comes to going off, statistically speaking. So after an off year, he has a chance to pick up his second MVP. Nothing against last year’s winner Kris Bryant of the Cubs, but I can see him coming back to Earth a bit, while his teammate Anthony Rizzo takes over with his best season yet. And if Dustin Pedroia could come back a year after winning Rookie of the Year with an MVP breakthrough, then Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager is more than capable of doing the same.

AL Cy Young LHP CHRIS SALE, RED SOX

Alternates: RHP Chris Archer, Rays; RHP Corey Kluber, Indians; RHP Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays Darkhorse: LHP Danny Duffy, Royals

When it comes to team or individual predictions and projections, I’ve seen plenty of my leaps of faith crash in a fiery explosion. Somehow, I’m not too worried about Sale’s chances of finally breaking free of his perennial almost-notquite Cy Young status. I know all about the so-called “Red Sox tax” that established veterans pay in their first season in Boston. Even Pedro Martinez paid his here in 1998 before regaining his Cy Young form the following year. But I’m betting on Sale’s upside and ability to post the best season of his career. A large part of that is based on the Red Sox defense behind him, which is a lot better than what the White Sox fielded last year and in prior seasons. Factor in how he’s playing with a better offense that he had in Chicago, and Sale could rather easily bust through his 17win career high while still posting dominating numbers in more important categories.

Competition could be stiff, not only from teammate Rick Porcello, but also in the division, primarily from Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez, last year’s AL ERA leader, and the Rays’ Chris Archer, who is due for a big-time breakout season. Corey Kluber of the Indians was scary good in the playoffs last year, a reminder of how dominating he can be. I never want to bet against him but still, all those extra innings last year could catch up to him. Another name worth mentioning is Masahiro Tanaka from the Yankees, who continues to live up to his contract and hype without a lot of fanfare, even in New York.

NL Cy Young LHP CLAYTON KERSHAW, DODGERS

Alternates: RHP Noah Syndergaard, Mets; RHP Max Scherzer, Nationals; RHP Johnny Cueto, Giants Darkhorse: RHP Julio Teheran, Braves

How good is Clayton Kershaw? He’s so good that I might pick him over Mike Trout when it comes to deciding who can rise above his peers when it comes to the ability to dominate and post eye-popping season totals. Kershaw already has three Cy Youngs (and an MVP), and he’s only 29 years old. It’s easy to throw around superlatives such as “genius,” or “once in a generation” type of player, but it’s not wasted verbiage when it comes to Kershaw. The only thing standing in his way is health, and last year a bad back cost him about 10 starts after he had started off with an unbelievable surge (16 starts, 14-2, 1.79 ERA, 145 strikeouts, nine walks in 121 innings). Only an injury would stand in his way again, but there is an abundance of candidates to pick up the slack, should he falter.

I root for Thor (Noah Syndergaard) for reasons that go beyond that nickname and his golden locks. He’s an old-school flamethrower, and if he can learn how to pitch (versus throw) even better, he’s on his way. Max Scherzer of the Nationals might be second only to Kershaw in all the majors. He has two Cy Youngs already. Why don’t we talk about him more?

AL Rookie of the Year OF ANDREW BENINTENDI, RED SOX

Alternates: OF Aaron Judge, Yankees; 1B Yulieski Gurriel, Astros; OF Mitch Haniger, Mariners

It sure seems as if we can etch Benintendi’s name into the trophy now — that’s how one-sided the sentiment seems to be about his chances. Nobody can deny that Benintendi’s discipline, poise and approach at the plate are at another level for somebody with his limited experience. He steps onto the field as if he’s been playing the game a long, long time. Rookies of the Year sometimes fall out of the bright blue sky, but that doesn’t appear to be the case for Benintendi as long as a year of playing in front of the Green Monster — an assignment with an underrated degree of difficulty — does not mess with him. It probably won’t.

There are many other inspiring young talents in the league but no, I’m not buying the storyline that Yoan Moncada, now with the White Sox, is going to suddenly become a factor in this race this season. If he makes it to the majors at all this season — far from a lock — it would likely not be before August.

Aaron Judge, a 6-foot-7 specimen — think Lurch from The Addams Family — could become either a terror for years to come (like Gary Sanchez is already threatening to be) or a victim of too much Yankees hype. Good pitching will expose his truth. Yulieski Gurriel, 32, is a proven talent from Cuba who could make an immediate impact.

NL Rookie of the Year RHP TYLER GLASNOW, PIRATES

Alternates: OF Manuel Margot, Padres; SS Darby Swanson, Braves; 1B Josh Bell, Pirates

Unlike the American League, this looks like a wide-open race. Tyler Glasnow does not even have a spot in the Pirates rotation locked up yet, but given their lack of depth I’m confident he will become indispensable for a team that may have to go the rebuilding route and begin to trade some of its betterknown players midway through the season.

Among the other contenders, the most intriguing name to keep an eye on is Manuel Margot, who might wind up being the Padres’ everyday center fielder. The main piece in the Red Sox’ trade for Craig Kimbrel, Margot has received rave reviews for his rapid development. A good fielder with great speed and an ability to get on base, Margot looks like a very valuable everyday bigleague outfielder.

AL Manager of the Year A.J. HINCH, ASTROS

The Astros are going to be putting up a plethora of runs this season, as their lineup is studded with the veteran bats of Jose Altuve, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Josh Reddick. They also have young studs in George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman. They have an excellent bullpen, so as long as Hinch can milk enough innings out of a rotation that has some health concerns, the Astros could wind up as not only the best team in the tough AL West, but also just below the Indians. Such a finish would net Hinch his first end-of-year award.

NL Manager of the Year WALT WEISS, ROCKIES

Led by Jon Gray in the rotation, and Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story in the lineup, the Rockies are going to surprise a few teams and move into the more-than-respectable range this season. As good as the offense is, so too is the rotation, which is young and deep. Over the last three seasons, Weiss has been at the helm as the team improved from 66 to 68 to 75 wins. This year, they are capable of breaking .500, even moving into the upper 80’s in wins. And if the Rockies work their way into the postseason tournament, the Rockies are capable of bringing Weiss a trophy come November.