Big ballot battle may bite Baker
Senate race may spur big turnout
The potential swarms of energized Democratic voters drawn out by a heated challenge to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren could mean down-ballot trouble for Gov. Charlie Baker, Republicans acknowledge as they weigh the calculus of the 2018 races.
GOP state Rep. Geoff Diehl’s decision to create a federal campaign account — a major move toward challenging Warren — has shifted focus to its potential impact on Baker, who is widely expected to seek re-election but has yet to formally announce a renewed campaign.
Diehl, who co-chaired President Trump’s campaign in Massachusetts, and his supporters have suggested the race could draw interest from national GOP donors and Trump’s political team. Already revved up by Trump’s unpopular policies, progressive Democrats could then channel that toward Warren, a proven powerhouse fundraiser already.
“To the extent that Warren gets a lot of attention and a Republican candidate raises and spends a lot of money, you have to worry that Warren will crank up Democratic turnout,” said Republican strategist Rob Gray. “And that can be a drag on state races. … The more turnout is like a presidential election, the better it is for Democrats.”
Republican political observers acknowledge that possibility, but they’ve also privately weighed a different scenario. An intense, attention-grabbing race involving Warren could suck up enough media attention and paid advertising that a challenger to Baker could struggle to effectively attack the popular incumbent and ensure his or her message resonates.
That also hinges on who actually emerges to take on Baker. Thus far, only Jay Gonzalez, a former Deval Patrick budget chief, has launched an official campaign, though Newton Mayor Setti Warren is actively exploring a run.
Neither have widespread name recognition or the financial base of Baker, who has more than $5.2 million in his campaign account.
Democrats have made clear they intend to try to link Baker to Trump, a strategy that could complicate things for Baker if Diehl, a top local Trump backer, emerges.
Baker, who campaigned with Diehl during his failed state Senate race in 2015, declined to say if he’d do so again, saying he wouldn’t insert himself ahead of a possible GOP primary. He also said he’s not concerned about a Trump backdraft.
“I tend to believe and expect and anticipate, based on what I hear every day out there, that people are judging the lieutenant governor and me based on the job we believe we are doing for the people of Massachusetts,” he said. “Frankly I think that’s the way we should be judged.”