SOX STARING DOWN FIRST EASTERN GAUNTLET
Minus the make-up visit from Pittsburgh on Thursday, the Red Sox are about to begin an uninterrupted stretch of the meat and potatoes of their schedule. The American League East, arguably again the best division in the league — the AL West looks awfully tough — is on the docket for 15 straight games beginning on Tuesday when the Orioles report to Fenway. Two Tuesdays later, the Red Sox will have gotten their first look at the four teams most responsible for their fate this season.
Last year, the Red Sox won the division by four games, and were 43-33 against their East foes. Is the path to a back-to-back crown just as easy? The short answer is no, considering the unresolved issues of David Price, Tyler Thornburg and no replacement for David Ortiz, but a black-or-white answer simply won’t do.
What we will do is lay it out both ways. The reasoning may cause you whiplash at times, but you’ve got six months of the regular season to recover.
Blue Jays
Reasons to Worry: If all you see is a team without Edwin Encarnacion, adjust your focus. The big picture is Toronto’s starters boasted the lowest ERA (3.46) in the league last year, and they’re all back. In Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano, the Blue Jays have the deepest 1-5 in the league. I’m not saying Sanchez and Stroman (or Happ) at the top are better than Rick Porcello and Chris Sale, but they’re awfully close.
Bullpen-wise, the Blue Jays have a gem in closer Roberto Osuna, who is only 22 years old.
Before moving to the offense, one word about the Blue Jays’ defense: It’s excellent, especially with Kevin Pillar in center field, plus Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson covering the left side of the infield. In this division, this counts.
So, to the offense. Yes, Encarnacion’s gone, but the Blue Jays did not all of a sudden drop into the mediocre category. Kendrys Morales does not have the name recognition, but he is a sneaky good overall hitter. He should thrive in a good hitting stadium and in a better lineup with Donaldson, who’s as dangerous as it gets. Add in Jose Bautista; if healthy, he should put up better numbers than his sub-par contract push season last year.
Reasons to Relax: You don’t really think the Blue Jays can claim to be any better without Encarnacion, do you? Of course their offense is going to take a hit. Morales is good, but has so much to prove playing and producing in the AL East. Factor in Tulowitzki and second baseman/leadoff hitter Devon Travis’ problems staying healthy. Bautista’s dropoff last season. That Russell Martin looked at times last season as if he had forgotten how to hold a bat. You understand that the offense is going to tail off.
That will only put more pressure on the rotation to provide everything it did last season, especially in the innings department, because Toronto’s bullpen has many question marks leading up to Osuna. Losing Brett Cecil will hurt, and there are plenty of concerns about a pack of relievers led by Jason Grilli and newcomer J.P. Howell. It’s an undistinguished group, and if the starters can’t go deep into games, the Blue Jays will be vulnerable.
Yankees
Reasons to Worry: Stranger danger. With no A-Rod, no Mark Teixeira, no Brian McCann and no Carlos Beltran, you might not recognize the younger Yankees this season. In catcher Gary Sanchez, right fielder Aaron Judge and first baseman Greg Bird, the Yankees are managing a pretty good imitation of the youthful core the Red Sox and Astros have. They all played well this spring, when the revamped Yankees went 228. It may be a stretch to propose this, but it’s not unheard of for a group of youngsters to all click at the same time. That’s supposed to happen in 2-3 years, but if it happens now, watch out. Matt Holliday as the DH could turn into a steal. (OK, a $13 million steal.)
Pitching-wise, the Yankees guaranteed competitiveness by inking Aroldis Chapman to the richest relief contract ever. He’s nearly unhittable, and should prove to be an excellent role model (from the mound) for Dellin Betances, who was and still could be the Yankees closer.
In the rotation, Masahiro Tanaka is just about as good as a No. 1 can get. Michael Pineda has yet to put together a full consistent season, but he’s only 28. If he can harness his considerable tools, his ceiling’s higher than the average underachiever.
Reasons to Relax: I know New Yorkers are notoriously confident. Surely, if they could put one of their own in the White House, the tricky balancing act they are trying to pull off between rebuilding and being competitive will tilt in their favor. Ha. No way. Simply too much needs to go perfectly for the Yankees to pose a serious threat to at least the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. I’m sure Sanchez is going to destroy a few pitches this summer, but he’s also due for some serious sophomore year regression. And while the 6-foot-7 Judge might be physically imposing in a Frank Howard-Richie Sexson-Giancarlo Stanton sort of way, he is at risk to turning into a strictly Sexson-like strikeout machine. Here’s another reason to be down on the Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury is still their center fielder.
Pitching-wise, let’s not forget that after Tanaka, that rotation is filled with question marks, including CC Sabathia and a cast of youngsters (led by Luis Severino) with more question marks than even Judge and Bird.
The Yankees are not ready to be feared yet.
Orioles
Reasons to Worry: It’s the old fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me when it comes to discounting these guys. They’re the only AL East team to make the playoffs in three of the last five seasons, averaging 89 wins — major props to manager Buck Showalter and general manager Dan Duquette. Having Mark Trumbo back in the fold means the Orioles can go full steam ahead with their mash-and-bash ways of last year, when they led the majors in home runs. Trumbo joins Chris Davis and Manny Machado, who along with Donaldson and Mookie Betts is in the discussion for the best player in the division.
The Orioles have two young pitchers, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, capable of blossoming. If they do, there’ll be joy in Camden Yards this summer because with that offense and a smooth-running rotation to go along with the deepest bullpen (closer Zach Britton) in the division, the Orioles become a real threat.
Reasons to Relax: Have you seen the rotation behind Gausman and Bundy? It’s not good. Chris Tillman would make a very good No. 3 pitcher, but that’s tough considering he’s out all this month at least. Then there’s the streaky Ubaldo Jimenez and the once-and-former innings eater Wade Miley . . . stop me when you get the point. The Orioles are operating on a wing and a prayer against the lineups in this division.
No doubt their lineup has enough pop, but they need to improve on their on-base percentage — .317 last year, below league average — or it’s going to be all solo shots.
Rays
Reasons to Worry: There’s no way to sugarcoat the Rays right now, but it’s early. If their deep-enough rotation — think Blue Jays Lite — can keep the ship upright for the early part of the season, a few new position players will have enough time to heal, return and help make this team a lot more interesting. Catcher Wilson Ramos (knee) and outfielder Colby Rasmus (hip, abdomen), along with shortstop Matt Duffy, are all talented players with the potential to make an impact on offense, where the Rays are the weakest.
Between the WBC and Opening Day, starter Chris Archer has already shown he won’t get off to the slow start he had last year. He, Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb make an imposing front three, one that can slow down any team in any series.
Reasons to Relax: How much time have we got? The Rays’ issues, as they always do, begin and end with their offense. Evan Longoria once again has no support to boast about, and the small-market team simply does not have the funds — and, perhaps worse, the type of rabid fan base that is needed to apply pressure on ownership — to do better. The farm system looks strong again, but that’s not going to help anyone this year.
One more thing. As good as the rotation is, the team probably will not be able to fully reap its benefits. Not with a bullpen that has closer Alex Colome, who’s really good, but nobody else who’s plain old good.