Porcello runs into tough luck
TORONTO — This is no time to panic about Rick Porcello.
This is a time to wish for more luck to Rick Porcello.
If you’re wondering what the biggest differences are between the 2017 version of Porcello — 1-2, 5.32 ERA — and the 2016 version of Porcello — 4-0, 3.51 ERA — through four starts, it’s not all that hard to figure out. While Porcello overall has not been as sharp, that does not explain the disparity.
For example, please take a look at what he did last night. He went seven innings and did not allow a single earned run. He walked only one, struck out six and gave up six hits, all singles.
That’s the kind of performance that Porcello was able to repeat start after start for almost the entire season before winning the American League Cy Young Award.
And yet the Red Sox lost, 3-0, to the Toronto Blue Jays. How did he do that? This is where luck — where balls are hit to and what kind of night the offense is having — come into play. Or, in Porcello’s case, where luck fails to show up.
The defense behind Porcello did him a disservice with back-to-back errors by third baseman Pablo Sandoval and first baseman Mitch Moreland to open the second inning, and three singles later the Blue Jays had scored three runs. Ballgame. For a pitcher who relies on contact, especially for a pitcher with a heavy sinker like Porcello, balls will be put in play. They sure were last night, and they have been all season. Last year, however, those balls were being hit at defenders (and the defense mostly did its job).
This year, when the defense isn’t failing, balls hit off Porcello are finding more holes. He allowed 19 hits in his first four starts last year and 31 this year.
The batting average on balls put in play against Porcello was .233 through four 2016 outings, a very low rate, roughly 70 points lower than average. This year, his BABIP is .342.
So, yes, Porcello did allow three hits after the bad defense last night, so he deserves his share of blame for the single-frame scoring outburst.
In his previous start, Porcello allowed eight runs and failed to get out of the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays, and that one’s on him. But not last night. “That’s part of the game, you pitch to contact, those sorts of things are going to happen, you can’t predict where they’re going to hit the ball,” Porcello said. “The biggest thing is they had a bunch of runners on that inning, a long inning, they got three runs and that was it. That’s the key right there. You’re going to give up hits, they’re going to find holes, it’s just being able to limit the damage and keep our team in the game.”
That’s the mantra of every starting pitcher: Limit the damage, and allow the offense a chance to stay ahead or pull ahead.
Last year, the offense obliged for Porcello.
The Sox scored 21 runs while he was pitching in his first four games in 2016. This year, they have scored nine runs for him.
Last night, the offense put up a goose egg, with Toronto starter Francisco Liriano enjoying the sight of sharply struck balls aimed right at his defenders, and those defenders fielding those balls professionally and without drama.
The combination was too much for Porcello to overcome by himself.
“I thought (Porcello) deserved a better fate than the way this one turned out,” manager John Farrell said. “He got his sinker back down in the bottom of the strike zone, a high number of ground balls unfortunately found some holes. When they put the ball on the ground, they found some holes. When we did, it turned into a couple of key double plays in the middle innings. I thought Rick tonight, that was a typical performance that Rick delivered so many times last year. From his performance, good to see him kind of get back on track to a certain extent.”
Porcello has pitched two fewer innings this year compared to last. His strikeouts-per-nine innings rate (under his control) is 8.75; it was 10.5 through four starts in ’16. He has given up the same amount of home runs (five) and walks (five).
He is a tic or two off his 2016 form.
What’s out of control is what he can’t control.
Which is why he could use a little, even a lot, more luck.