Youth movement goes in whole new direction
During the league’s annual meetings, Patriots owner Robert Kraft didn’t seem all too concerned about not having a first- or secondround pick in the upcoming draft, if it ultimately plays out that way. The reason? Some of the team’s high picks of late haven’t lived up to their billing. So now, as a kind of substitute, the Patriots have brought in some young players via trade and free agency who should help fill the void. It’s a new plan, or rather, a revamped way of thinking this season to try and make up for either not having high draft picks in past years, or unsuccessful top choices.
Will it work in the short term? Time will tell.
“The draft gives you young people that you can basically control your costs for four years or five years as a firstround draft pick. But we’ve gotten some younger players who are known entities,” Kraft said last month at the annual spring meeting at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix. “We’ve made some draft picks high up, and they haven’t performed well, so having known value versus not being sure. I think Brandin (Cooks) is 23. (Stephon) Gilmore is 26. (Dwayne Allen) is (27), so there’s a risk-reward analysis there.”
You can also add running back Mike Gillislee, the 26-year-old running back the Patriots signed to an offer sheet from the Bills last week.
The assumption is Gilmore, Cooks, Allen and Gillislee are going to perform up to expectations, but in reality, there’s no guarantee of that, either. Those players do have a track record of success. But for Cooks, Allen and Gillislee, they have to adapt to Tom Brady and the Patriots offense, a task not every player has done after arriving in Foxboro. As for Gilmore, it’s going to be a tall order living up to his hefty five-year, $65 million contract.
So yes, there’s still a risk-reward associated with relying on players from the outside. And while it helps bringing in young, more well-known players instead of going through the draft, where you’ve hit a spell of duds at the top recently, it doesn’t completely solve the issue. It just puts a band-aid on it.
This kind of philosophy for the Patriots is a departure from the norm. The draft has always been the heart of the team, and it’s interesting Kraft would tacitly acknowledge failure, by calling out “some draft picks up high” who “haven’t performed well.”
Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have done pretty well with their first-round picks. Historically, Belichick has hit it in the first round more times than not. His batting average is very good. Only recently have some of the first-rounders, or first selections by the Patriots, not been what the team hoped. The reference might have been aimed at 2014 first-round pick Dominique Easley (29th overall). Malcom Brown, the team’s first-round pick in 2015, has run hot and cold, but it’s too early to make a final judgment on him. Perhaps there was some relevance to last year’s top pick, Cyrus Jones (second round, 60th overall), who had a disappointing first year, but the book really isn’t complete on him either, so it’s not the best example. The fact the Pats haven’t had a first-round pick in two of the last four years, and are headed for three out of five, doesn’t exactly bode well for future development and controlling costs.
Maybe that’s ultimately why the Patriots have gone this route, spending on younger players either via trade or free agency. They need to maintain the flow of youth.
“You still need the draft,” Lions general manager Bob Quinn, the former Patriots director of pro scouting, told the Herald at the league meetings last month. “Free agency is a big unknown. Sometimes it works out perfectly. It’s a balancing act, but you can’t build a team through free agency. It’s too difficult. If you study the great teams through the years, (the draft is) how the better teams are built, in my opinion.”
The Patriots certainly apply. They’ve done well over the years leaning on their success rate in the draft. And yet, especially now, it’s still an interesting debate as to whether to go with young veterans or gamble on draft picks. As it is, after surrendering a fifth-rounder for Gillislee, the Pats are left with just six picks in the upcoming draft.
Texans coach Bill O’Brien, another Belichick disciple, understands the dynamic, but still falls back on the draft.
“It’s really hard to bat 100 percent in the draft,” O’Brien said at the league meetings, “but I’d say free agency is more of a risk. It’s more important to put the time in on the draft and see how it goes.”
When you have a Super Bowl-winning team, perhaps plugging holes and going forward with young established players over draft picks is the best way for success. At least, that’s the message the Patriots are sending this time out.