Inconsistent fastball sinks Porcello
NEW YORK — Rick Porcello is not a one-pitch pitcher. He can mix in changeups, sliders and curveballs. He can change speeds and elevate occasionally.
But if he doesn’t have his fastball, especially if he doesn’t have the location and movement on his sinker, Porcello is going to be in trouble. And too often this season, he’s been in trouble with that bread-and-butter pitch.
It happened to him again last night in a four-run fourth inning that doomed the Red Sox to an 8-0 blowout loss to the Yankees.
The leadoff triple? Fastball. The RBI single? Fastball. The second single? Fastball. The three-run homer? Fastball. Porcello said he really wanted only two pitches back all game, and both came in that inning. Both, of course, were fastballs.
According to Brooks Baseball, opponents were hitting .406 against Porcello’s sinker heading into last night’s game, and they were slugging .683 against it. He can mix in other pitches, but as long as that two-seamer isn’t effective, Porcello won’t be effective.
“It hasn’t been as consistent as I want it to be,” he said. “I used it, actually, a lot more (last night) and it was better in some instances. But when I get out there and I’m on the mound and fighting in the games, I’m going with what I think is my best stuff and what I’m going to be most competitive with. Sometimes that’s my two-seamer, sometimes that’s my four-seamer. But I definitely need to get back to sinking the ball down in the zone and commanding that well.”
Right now, last season looks like an outlier.
Porcello has a 4.21 career ERA, which is far closer to this year’s 4.46 than last year’s 3.15. His walks are up from last year, but still relatively low for his career. His strikeout rate is the best of his career.
But Porcello keeps getting hit. That’s the one thing that really stands out, the glaring difference between an elite pitcher last season and a so-so pitcher this season. Opponents hit .230 against him last year. Better than .300 this year.
“Rick is in a run here where, when he does make a mistake, they’ve capitalized on it,” Sox manager John Farrell said.
So, what’s to be done? The organization isn’t going to replace him or demote him or move him into the bullpen. The Red Sox don’t have the depth to do that, and it wouldn’t make sense. Even with all this hard contact, Porcello’s allowed more than four earned runs only twice this season. More times than not, he’s allowed three or fewer.
He’s gotten zero runs of support in seven of his past 10 starts. That 3-8 record isn’t all his fault.
But these next four months might tell us something about him, whether he’s an adjustment away from regaining last year’s momentum, or the current numbers provide a more realistic expectation.
Porcello also pitched on June 7 of last year, so there’s an easy point of comparison.
Exactly one year ago, he was 12 starts into the season and had a 4.04 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates were more or less the same as this season. He had seven wins and a low opponents’ batting average, but not much else to suggest he was chasing a Cy Young Award.
The rest of the season, he made 21 starts with a 2.69 ERA. Strikeouts, walks and opponents’ average stayed close to the same, but opponents didn’t hit for nearly as much power. At this time last year, he wasn’t far away from being one of the better pitchers in the league.
Next thing you know, Porcello’s a Cy Young winner.
What’s changed this season is the number of hits. After eight more last night — he’s allowed at least that many in eight of 13 starts — Porcello became the first pitcher in the majors to give up 100 hits this season.
A slightly deeper dive into the numbers shows what you’d expect: more line drives and not as many ground balls, and his hard contact rate is up by a lot.
There is no easy fix for the Red Sox. The onus is on Porcello.
“Just the execution of pitches, what it always comes down to,” he said. “You make good pitches and guys get hits, you can live with that. But in crucial times, when you’ve got to bear down and locate, I haven’t been very consistent with that. And I’ve got to get better.”
It was at this time last year that Porcello got just a little bit better and it made all the difference. The Red Sox would like to see him do it again.
“You’re going to have some struggles that you have to come out of,” he said. “And I’m working toward that right now. Obviously, I’m not happy with the way I’m performing, but I have to take it all in stride and turn the page for the next one.”