SOX STAFF UNPROVEN BUT ARMED FOR PLAYOFFS
We’ve officially reached the season’s second half, and since we’re always thinking forward here at the Herald, it’s time to examine the postseason picture.
There’s something to be said for experience, especially in the playoffs, and when it comes to the Red Sox’ starting pitching, there is nothing positive.
Aside from fill-in Doug Fister, not a single current Sox pitcher has recorded a win as a starter in the postseason. Remember this stat from last year? The Sox did little to take away its merit.
Chris Sale hasn’t yet gotten the chance to pitch in the playoffs, since the Chicago White Sox could never surround him with enough talent.
Rick Porcello has started three playoff games and his teams have lost them all. David Price has infamously started nine playoff games, with his team going 0-9 in those games. Neither Eduardo Rodriguez nor Drew Pomeranz has ever started a playoff game.
Fister has, and he’s pitched brilliantly, with a 2.60 ERA in nine postseason starts, but since it’s highly unlikely the 33-yearold will stick around with the Sox all year, much less be given a playoff start over any of the others, we won’t consider him in this discussion.
This doesn’t mean that the Red Sox are doomed. Sale is the wild card here, and while he’s on pace to throw a new career-high in innings, there are ways to control his usage down the stretch and keep him as fresh as possible for October.
So how much does playoff experience really matter?
Consider some of the postseason legends over the last 30 years:
Greg Maddux allowed 25 runs in 34 innings over his first six postseason starts, then posted a 2.58 ERA over his final 29 playoff games.
John Smoltz had 13 postseason appearances over three years before he became dominant in 1996, throwing 38 innings with a playoff record 0.95 ERA, the lowest ERA of any pitcher to throw at least 25 innings in a single postseason.
Madison Bumgarner was just OK, with a 3.79 ERA over two separate postseasons before he became MadBum, the legend, and set the record with 52 2/3 innings 3 during the 2014 playoffs.
But for every Bumgarner, Smoltz and Maddux, there’s a
Josh Beckett, who was born for the job. No experience necessary. Beckett was overpowering in 2003, throwing two shutouts for the Florida Marlins, and might have been even nastier in 2007, when he helped the Red Sox capture their second World Series in four years.
Curt Schilling was an instant postseason legend, filthy for the Phillies in 1993, then part of the two-headed monster in Arizona as Randy Johnson and Schilling led the Diamondbacks to a World Series title in 2001.
Jon Lester has never showed fear in the postseason. Orel Hershiser was always a force in October. And the Yankees had both Mike Mussina and Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez to handle the playoffs like just another summer afternoon at the park. Experience might matter for some. And given the only two Red Sox pitchers with starts in the postseason have combined to lead their teams to an 0-12 record, there’s reason to be concerned. But, assuming the Red Sox qualify for playoff baseball, they should enter with a starting rotation that’s as good as any in the American League.
Here is our current ranking of the contending team’s rotations, noting their records coming out of the break and their predicted ticket to the postseason, in ascending order:
• 5. NEW YORK YANKEES (Break record: 45-41; wild card) PROJECTED PLAYOFF ROTATION: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery. SP WAR: 4th, 7.8 WAR SP ERA: 5th, 4.26 ERA The Yankees rotation is a house of cards, and it began crashing on Friday when it was announced that Michael Pineda had a torn UCL and will likely miss the rest of the year.
It’s been a bizarre season from Tanaka, a pitcher no team will want to face in the playoffs for fear that his signature splitter is actually on. Tanaka had a 5.47 ERA at the break despite striking out at least eight in five of his last seven starts.
Severino is having the breakout season that most expected of him, striking out 124 in 1062⁄ innings with a 3.54 ERA at the break. But he threw only 151 innings last year, and just 71 of them were in the majors. How far can the Yankees push their 23-year-old franchise ace?
This team needs help at the deadline if they’re going to survive. Even with Aaron Judge helping them, we’re not expecting much from this rotation come October.
• 4. CLEVELAND INDIANS (47-40, AL Central champion) PROJECTED PLAYOFF ROTATION: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Josh Tomlin with Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger as additional options. SP WAR: 2nd, 9.9 WAR SP ERA: 6th, 4.29 ERA Kluber was a maniac last October, pitching with reduced velocity while battling a quadriceps strain and still throwing 341⁄ innings with a 1.83 ERA. He’s been almost as good this season, making his second straight All-Star team.
Carrasco was injured and didn’t pitch in the playoffs last year, but the 30-year-old right-hander is a consistent pro, the classic No. 2 starter who held a 3.44 ERA at the break.
Salazar has been injured but has wipeout stuff. Tomlin and Bauer are forgettable.
It could be a dynamite starting staff, right? We rank them fourth because of an expected drop-off late in the year. Rarely does a pitching staff bounce back after a long October run and stay healthy and effective for the entirety of the following season. The San Francisco Giants were an even-year team. That wasn’t just a myth. The Red Sox starters fell apart in 2014 after a long run in 2013. It happens often. And the Indians aren’t likely to be immune.
• 3. TAMPA BAY RAYS (47-43, wild card) PROJECTED PLAYOFF ROTATION: Chris archer, alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi and Jacob Faria with Matt andriese and Blake Snell as options. SP WAR: 6th, 6.7 WAR SP ERA: 2nd, 4.05 ERA This organization can churn out elite starters faster than Marvel can churn out new Spider-Man movies. Faria was a 10th-round draft pick who has soared through the minors and shined in his first six starts since his major league debut, posting a 2.11 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 381⁄ innings.
Archer has yet to make a playoff start, but is the kind of player who loves the spotlight and could make things interesting if he’s pitching his best come October.
Cobb is solid and Odorizzi is a nice piece for any rotation to have.
The rest of the Rays team isn’t too scary, but once again they’ve got a strong starting staff.
• 2. HOUSTON ASTROS (60-29, AL West champion) PROJECTED PLAYOFF ROTATION: Dallas keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Fiers and Joe Musgrove with Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton providing further options. SP WAR: 3rd, 8.2 WAR SP ERA: 1st, 3.82 ERA Now this is a terrifying team. Not just because Keuchel is back in Cy Young form (9-0, 1.67 ERA), though he is battling a neck injury, but the offense is scoring 5.92 runs per game while also leading the majors with 148 homers. Offenses of that ilk surely keep starting pitchers confident, and these pitchers don’t need another reason to be feeling good.
McCullers (3.05 ERA, 10.4 K/9) continues to be one of the best pitchers in the American League and Fiers (3.84 ERA, 8.4 K/9) has been a solid addition from the Milwaukee Brewers.
If they were a bit deeper, or if Keuchel was totally healthy, the Astros would be worthy of the top spot. The trade deadline will be interesting.
• 1. RED SOX (50-39, AL East champs) PROJECTED PLAYOFF ROTATION: Sale, Rodriguez, Porcello and Price with Pomeranz as an option. SP WAR: 1st, 10 WAR SP ERA: 3rd, 4.21 ERA Any rotation with Sale at the top has a chance to be No. 1. He’s averaging more than seven innings and almost 10 strikeouts per start. Again, that’s just his average.
Porcello (4.75 ERA) appears to be turning a corner, Price (3.91 ERA) is getting stronger and Rodriguez was one of the best in the league with a 2.77 ERA before injuring his knee and allowing seven runs in Baltimore.
Pomeranz (3.60 ERA) is having one heck of a season, but given that he’s always an injury concern and could be on an innings limit, there’s a decent chance he ends up in the bullpen by the end of the season. . . .
There’s one other question to be asked here: While starting pitching has long been considered the beating heart of every successful playoff baseball team, does that theory still hold true?
Well, the last 12 World Series combatants haven’t all had juggernaut rotations.
Here’s how they ranked by FanGraphs WAR: • 2016: Cubs 3, Indians 8 • 2015: Royals 23, Mets 4 • 2014: Giants 21, Royals 20 • 2013: Red Sox 13, Cardinals 3 • 2012: Giants 16, Tigers 1 • 2011: Cardinals 14, Rangers 3
Farrell manages nicely
How many baseball managers are universally remembered fondly by the team’s fanbase? Count them on one hand. John Farrell has earned his fair share of criticism, but he continues to climb the rankings with almost 400 wins as the manager of the Red Sox.
Farrell came out of the break with 389 wins, ranking eighth in franchise history behind Don Zimmer (411) and Jimy williams (414). If he completes this season, he should pass Williams and become the second manager since Joe Cronin left in 1947 to complete a fifth season as Red Sox manager. terry Francona (eight seasons, 2004-2011) is the only other.
Farrell rarely makes the kind of statements or decisions that are cause for celebration — though some might say he deserved more applause for the way he aggressively used Craig kimbrel to lock up close games early in the year — and he’s made his fair share of questionable moves. But he continues to survive. Barring some kind of late-season meltdown, he’s solidified his job here. If he were to be fired for something other than results, he wouldn’t be the one who comes out looking bad.
Buck the odds
On June 1, the Red Sox were 29-23, two games behind in the East and yet a betting man could still get 15-to-2 odds on the Sox to win the World Series.
Those odds have since dropped a bit, with the Sox getting 6-1 odds coming out of the break, according to Bovada. Only the Astros (17-4) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (7-2) have better odds.
The Yankees have fallen from 12-1 to 14-1.