Prospects grim for Afghan win
AS YOU WERE SAYING ...
The U.S. is not trying to win; the military is only trying not to lose in a catastrophic way. The current strategy is to kick the can down the road.
In June, news outlets noted President’s Trump’s about-face decision to send 5,000 more troops to Afghanistan, augmenting the 8,500 already there. So why did Trump, and President Obama before him, reverse a campaign pledge to withdraw from Afghanistan? Strategically, the president is likely keenly aware that the U.S. and its Afghan allies will not win this war militarily.
Defense Secretary James Mattis told Congress last June that the U.S. is “not winning.” There were over 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan back in 2011-2012, and they did not defeat the Taliban. Today 13,500 won’t win the war.
Normally there are three ways to get into, and out of, a location — land, sea and air.
Land: The 1989 Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan took months. The Soviets had 100,000 troops in Afghanistan at the conflict’s peak and lost 15,000 soldiers in their 9-year war. The Soviets were able to use armored convoys to withdraw under enemy pressure and still suffered many casualties. They also shared a land border with Afghanistan.
Sea: Afghanistan is a landlocked country. The nearest ports are in Iran and Pakistan.
Air: Poor land and sea options mean the U.S. would likely have to withdraw using one or more airfields — the main one is Bagram, northeast of Kabul.
The “never spoken in public” fear for U.S. leaders is that the recent trickle of “Green on Blue” incidents — inwhich Afghan soldiers turn their weapons on U.S. servicemen and women — could turn into a torrent during an air withdrawal. When the secretary of Defense says the U.S. is “not winning,” Afghan soldiers understand that being on the losing side in the war can mean their death in combat or execution by a victorious Taliban.
As a result, the nightmare scenario is that the Taliban would be advancing on Bagram’s perimeter, and Afghan soldiers, who would be expected to keep the Taliban away from the withdrawing Americans, would see the handwriting on the wall and turn on the Americans in an effort to save their own skin.
The American people need to know the gravity of the current situation and the true reasons for the U.S. strategy. The U.S. is not trying to win; the military is only trying not to lose in a catastrophic way. The current strategy is to “kick the can down the road.” That means buying time but at a cost of American lives while seeking a negotiated way out.
The only silver lining is that once again, this is an opportunity for America to learn you don’t get into a fight without a clear and acceptable exit strategy. Like the song laments, “… when will they ever learn, when will they ever learn?”
Jeff Beatty has served in the Delta Force, the FBI and the CIA Counterterrorism Center. He is currently a lecturer on national security at the University of New Haven.