China in precarious position as tensions flare up, sparking instability
As heated rhetoric between the United States and North Korea hits a nuclear pitch, the Chinese can do little but play reluctant mediator and send signals to its isolated neighbor that it is on its own if war with America is on the table, according to experts.
“The best China can do is minimize North Korea’s incentive to use force of any kind,” said Robert Ross, a political science professor at Boston College who focuses on Chinese security and defense policy. “They can politically isolate them and signal that they would not support North Korea in a war they initiate.”
China is North Korea’s biggest trading partner and delivers the outcast nation its economic lifeblood. The relationship is complicated, and experts say China does not want to push — or harm — its neighbor too much, fearing instability on its border.
“If there is social or military instability, they could be looking at a war on their border,” Ross said. “They don’t want a war on their border. They don’t want the potential of American troops that close to their border. That is a far more difficult situation than the status quo.”
In its position as a regional power and unenthusiastic friend to North Korea, Chinese leadership may try to de-escalate the war of words between Kim Jong Un and the Trump administration, University of California, Berkeley political science professor Steven Weber said.
“The Chinese would love to get them at a negotiating table, even if it’s indirectly,” Weber said. “They would conduct a type of shuttle diplomacy. It wouldn’t solve the problem, but it could turn down the heat a little bit.”
Weber also said he wouldn’t be surprised if these conversations, with China as the go-between, are already happening behind the scenes.
But experts say China is in no hurry to try to destabilize Kim’s government or outwardly flex its political muscles in North Korea’s direction. It is also uncertain how rigorously China will enforce new sanctions handed down by the U.N. over the weekend.
And, if future sanctions could potentially lead to a regime collapse, Ross said China would likely back away.
“If they were sufficiently effective to create a regime change, it would create the possibility of instability on the border. That would be too costly to China,” he said. “They aren’t going to do that. Choking them off to the point that it would be effective is just too costly.”
That leaves the status quo — a global game of “chicken” where tensions between the U.S. and North Korea flare up close to a boiling point through statements or forbidden nuclear tests. And China, Weber said, is acting as if either North Korea or the U.S. will invariably turn the wheel.
“It’s basically that both sides are trying to prove to the other that they are willing to tolerate a higher level of risk. They send signals that the other had better back down because they aren’t willing to do so,” Weber said. “The risk, of course, is that signals get misinterpreted.”