Kim aims for reunification, splitting U.S. and allies
North Korea is playing a game of nuclear chess with the U.S., and the isolated nation’s calculated maneuvers are designed with one main goal in mind — to unify the Korean Peninsula under Kim Jong Un’s leadership, analysts say.
“Their highest state goal is to liberate South Korea,” said SungYoon Lee, a professor in Korean Studies at The Fletcher School at Tufts University. “That may sound absurd, but the regime needs to contend with this better Korean state across the border,” Lee said. “The mere existence of South Korea creates an existential threat.”
Without raw, boots-on-theground military might, the North Koreans have become a burgeoning nuclear power in order to push unification through threats and other means of provocation. The idea, however far-fetched, according to Lee, is that North Korea can eventually put the U.S. in a position where it believes it has to make a difficult choice. It can either stay loyal to South Korea and maintain troops there, or run the risk of leaving Americans open to a nuclear attack.
“Nuclear weapons are a powerful deterrent, but there is also an offensive property to possessing them. You can dictate to big powers the terms of your relationship,” he said. “They can be used to instill doubt in an administration: Do we honor our treaty obligation to defend our allies in South Korea at the risk of maybe 2 million American lives?”
That tactic can also have a secondary effect that creates doubt in the minds of American allies in the region. If Japan and South Korea continue to hear the rhetoric from North Korean leadership, and there is no outward American response, it can raise questions as to whether the U.S. will do anything when push comes to shove, according to another expert.
“North Korea uses these actions to coerce the United States to make decisions that it may not be ready for,” said Lisa Collins, a fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. “It may be used to create doubt — or apprehension — in Japanese and South Korean allies as to the commitment of the United States to protect them,” Collins said.
Most of the nuclear language is based around “protecting the state” and “ensuring the survival” of Kim Jong Un’s regime, Collins said. That’s why there have been many provocations but no massive military event since the end of the Korean War, Lee explained. “They are not suicidal. They are not jihadist,” he said. “They are most keen on self-preservation.”