COULD 40 BE BRADY’S NEW 50?
’07 redux feels possible
Now 40, Tom Brady may be able to reenergize his chase for 50.
While the Patriots’ future Hall of Fame quarterback would probably love to keep his job title through 2027, that’s another topic for another time. In the present day, Brady and his Patriots machine have a golden opportunity to rewind the clock by a decade and push for another season of 50 touchdown passes.
The offense is unquestionably that talented, even without receiver extraordinaire Julian Edelman. A second 50 would take an historic feat on a number of levels for Brady, but what of the 40-year-old’s career has ever been ordinary?
“It’s really weird. I haven’t seen any sign of him slowing down,” said Donte Stallworth, a wide receiver on the 2007 Patriots. “He still has good zip on the ball from sideline to sideline, from the far hash to the sideline. I still see him getting the ball there on time. The accuracy is still there. This guy, to be able to watch him, is really a treat. You never know when you’re going to get another person like that. The dude is not human, man. He is not human.” Fifty touchdowns is historically brutal enough that it’s almost laughable to debate its validity before Week 1, but it speaks to this offense’s firepower. Brady and Peyton Manning (55 touchdowns in 2013) are the only quarterbacks to ever do it, plus there’ve only been 12 40-touchdown seasons in history, most recently by Aaron Rodgers (40 in 2016) and Andrew Luck (40 in 2014). While Brady is no ordinary 40-year-old quarterback, consider a 40-year-old throwing 10 more touchdown passes than two of the game’s best current gunslingers.
While the competition anxiously awaits Brady’s cliff dive, his numbers have improved, and the line can be drawn at Deflategate. Since Super Bowl XLIX against the Seahawks, Brady has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for per-game averages of 305.9 yards, 2.7 touchdowns and 0.47 interceptions — all superior to his career averages. He has also put together the two best fourth-quarter performances in Super Bowl history. And Brady’s supporting cast might be even more talent-
ed than in 2007. Tight end Rob Gronkowski looked dominant this summer, and his new workout routine — under the guise of Brady’s guru, Alex Guerrero — offered enough physical and mental comfort to end his fiveyear exhibition layoff.
Brady will surely miss Edelman, who tore his ACL in the preseason, but the Patriots worked diligently this offseason to build a group that is virtually injuryproof.
Chris Hogan, who led the NFL last season with 17.9 yards per catch, was consistently the most impressive wideout in training camp. He gained Brady’s trust after signing in 2016 as quickly as anyone, and he has evolved into a polished product in his second season. Hogan’s clinic in the preseason meeting with the Lions was a shining example.
Brandin Cooks, who should be the Patriots’ most electric deepball artist since Randy Moss, is one of the league’s premier young receivers. The early looks with Brady suggest Cooks will live up to the hype.
From there on the depth chart are the ever-trusty Danny Amendola and impressive youngster Malcolm Mitchell. Amendola had a limited role last season, but was dynamite on third down with 14 catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns. (He had 15 grabs for 70 yards and one score on all other downs.) Mitchell is an injury concern, for sure, but he proved during the joint practices with the Texans that he can return from a layoff and contribute with the starters. More importantly, Mitchell unveiled his moxie in the Super Bowl with six catches for 70 yards, with all but a 7-yard catch coming after halftime.
Trade acquisition Phillip Dorsett has a lot to learn in short order before putting his blistering speed on display, but he is still a 2015 first-round pick with loads of potential. Enough for the Patriots to cough up Jacoby Brissett.
Simply, there aren’t any weak spots. This isn’t 2015, when smart defenses could lay off Scott Chandler, Keshawn Martin and Chris Harper while Gronkowski and Edelman were on the mend. Any of the receivers can start, and backup tight end Dwayne Allen is a blocking force who can spell Gronk when necessary.
“I think that’s what makes a good offense — having a lot of versatility,” Brady said last month. “I’ve said for a long time, I throw to where the guys are open. If they double someone, everyone else is singled across the board, so you’ve just got to be careful who you double. If we’ve got the right play called against a certain defense, it’s tough to stop us.”
Compare those resumes to the 2007 Patriots, who were on the receiving end of the first 50-touchdown season in NFL history. Moss, Wes Welker and Stallworth were all in their initial season with the Pats. Jabar Gaffney, the only other wide receiver to catch a pass that season, joined in 2006.
The other prominent pass catchers were running back Kevin Faulk, whose credentials were well-established, and tight end Ben Watson. Linebacker Mike Vrabel also chipped in a couple scoring grabs. Especially now understanding the complications syncing up with Brady, it’s amazing they were — to that point — the highest scoring offense in NFL history.
“We put it all together,” Stallworth said. “Having Brady at the helm helps with him being a future Hall of Famer. Everything worked in sync with one another. (Offensive coordinator) Josh McDaniels, the plays that he was calling, it was almost like we couldn’t do anything wrong.”
It’s possible Brady’s greatest obstacle to 50 touchdowns in 2017 might not be in front of him, but behind him. Bill Belichick invested more into the running back position than ever before, doling out $24.5 million to extend James White, plus add Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. If Belichick and McDaniels ever want to ease Brady’s burden in the cold winter months, the Patriots have better backfield depth than the 2007 group, which was 13th in rushing yards (but did have 17 ground scores).
Brady’s 50-touchdown season — not counting six more he threw in three playoff games — wasn’t just an aberration by league standards, it was far and away his greatest workload. Brady’s next two best seasons were in 2011 (47 touchdowns in 19 games, including playoffs) and 2014 (43 touchdown in 19 games). Even with all his extended playoff runs, those are his only 40-score seasons.
There isn’t a specific road map to 50 touchdowns, either. Brady did it one way in 2007, with Moss setting a record with 23, Welker nabbing eight, and six other players combing for 19. In 2013, Manning threw at least 10 touchdown passes to four players, including Demaryius Thomas’ teamleading 14. A dominant statistical force like Moss isn’t a necessity for 50, although a healthy Gronk would help.
Still, intangible factors will come into play. Will the Patriots be as motivated to embarrass their competition as they were coming off Spygate? If they lose a game along the way, how will that change their approach later in the season? Brady also no longer has anything to prove with his passing prowess, the way he might have a decade ago.
“You just never know,” Faulk said. “Everything has to time up perfectly. I’m not saying that it can’t be done. That 2007 team wasn’t setting out to set any records. We were just setting out to be a better team each week we stepped on the field. It just happened that each week it got bigger and bigger and bigger.
“I don’t think it’s unrealistic. They prepare the way they normally do and let things happen. They want to win championships. When you win championships, bigger things happen.”
Heck, even if the records don’t fall, this Patriots incarnation could go down as the most unstoppable offensive group in league history. Fifty touchdown passes for Brady is possible because they’re that good, but don’t discount the significance of the pursuit. Both now and when assessing the magnificence of that 2007 operation, no matter how it measures against what’s to come.