SHARP ANGLES TO FOLLOW ON PLAYOFF PATH
The Red Sox have a mere 20 games left to play. It’s a stretch in which the meaning of each win and loss will be magnified to a far greater degree than some blustery spring or sweltering summer contest. The value of each game is the same, but the stakes feel much higher now. And they are higher. The Red Sox have struggled to carve out a larger lead over the Yankees and they have already dropped far behind the Indians for second-best American League record and home-field advantage honors in a potential ALCS matchup.
By hook or by crook, the Red Sox do seem playoff bound. Here are the story angles to keep an eye on over the next three weeks — factors that could shape the ability of the Sox to play deep into October or have a presumed postseason experience be a short one:
• What happens with AppleGate fallout?
It’s become somewhat of a goofy joke to the Red Sox that they got caught doing something with an AppleWatch — aiding the relaying of opposing pitch calls to batters — that every other team is doing. But we don’t know yet how amused commissioner Rob Manfred is. Let’s see what happens if the commissioner decides to come down hard on the ballclub if the investigation wraps up soon. Nobody’s expecting him to go so far as vacate a victory but if it’s loss of a draft pick or two, that’s a big deal. As far as how it affects the play on the field, we still don’t know that many details about the deed itself. If the investigation reveals (or leaks) embarrassing or even more discriminating truths about actions taken by players, for example, the media will pounce. Maybe the fans will, too. Will the Red Sox punish their own? Lots of unknowns for now, but the potential for distractions when that’s the last thing this team needs is large.
• Will the offense get hot enough at the right time?
The AppleGate spectacle served to highlight, weirdly enough, how unstable and inconsistent the Red Sox offense has become. I’m here to reveal a bombshell: If the offense does not find a way to improve its run- scoring capability, the Sox could get demolished in the playoffs, when pitching picks up and scoring goes down. The Cubs won it all last year with elite production, yet champions such as the 2012, 2014 Giants and 2015 Royals won with average-to-good offenses. When the Giants and Royals won, their offenses peaked in October. The Red Sox were most productive in May and August and have begun September in a team-wide slump. Will Mookie Betts step it up? Will Chris Young and Hanley Ramirez begin to pound left-handed pitching? Will Rafael Devers make adjustments? Will Xander Bogaerts ever rake again? If there are not enough affirmative answers to these questions, the best pitching and defense in the world will not be enough for a 2017 Red Sox playoff campaign.
• What’s left in the tank for Sale?
Chris Sale historically “fades” in the second half. This is who he is. And while his fade is to a level that most any other pitcher would kill for, the Red Sox ace is performing pretty close to his career norms as he finishes up his first regular season with the Red Sox. In seven seasons with the White Sox his career first-half ERA was 2.74. This year it was 2.75. His career second-half ERA was 3.28. This year, it stood at 3.05 headed into last night’s start against the Rays.
This matters in that Sale simply has never pitched beyond September before due to the ineffectiveness of the White Sox during the first seven years of his career. He has no postseason experience and while he’s the type of pitcher one should never, ever bet against, it’s worth a raised eyebrow or two to note that since Aug. 1, in games started against the Indians and Yankees, the two best teams the Red Sox faced, four of his five starts could be characterized as poor.
Whether this is just a temporary drop-off before he surges once again remains a mystery for now.
• How fast will Price’s rehab proceed?
Let’s dispense with the folly that David Price is going to somehow gain the endurance, arm strength and innings necessary to be ready for a start by the beginning of October. If he suddenly — I mean, early this week — makes rapid strides, the team could try to build him up in time for a Division Series, but that’s more magical than realistic thinking. Remember, the Red Sox held out hope that a rehabbing Steven Wright might contribute in last season’s ALDS, but then that got pushed back to a potential ALCS appearance. The issue was moot, which is why the Red Sox should cut bait with the approach of using Price as a starter and instead prepare him for a bullpen role. Price as a twoinning threat would represent, at this stage, a far more effective use of his time and the team’s than starting him. For any playoff series, they have the four necessary starters in Sale, Doug Fister, Drew Pomeranz and Rick Porcello, with Eduardo Rodriguez on the bench. That’s sufficient depth. Price’s skillset is greater than any
other pitcher in the bullpen outside of Craig Kimbrel. That’s how he should be treated from here on out, but either way, it’s going to depend on him continuing to take steps forward. Any negative news between now and the end of September will be cause to shut him down for 2017, an outcome which would have little effect on the team’s short-term future, considering how brief Price’s season has been, totaling just 11 starts so far.
• How will Pedroia’s knee hold up?
The Red Sox and Dustin Pedroia appear to be on the same page in terms of the second baseman being treated cautiously this month in order to make sure his sore knee holds up for October. The 34-year-old appears to have finally accepted his baseball mortality, and understands that playing hurt on that knee amounts to career suicide. That the team has spoken of the need for Pedroia to monitor the knee over the remainder of his career — he’s under contract for four more seasons — points to how delicate his condition is. He came back once too soon but has now been cleared to play on a schedule that will make him a sporadic regular. This works. If you want to see Pedroia play in October, you do not want to see him on the field too often the rest of this month. On average, 4-5 days a week is enough, with as many appearances at DH as possible, especially next weekend on the artificial turf at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla.
The Red Sox need Pedroia’s defense and offense if they intend to make any noise next month. That requires a kid-glove treatment with him this month. • Can Porcello figure it out? In a couple of starts since the All-Star break, Porcello appeared to have regained his formidable stuff and last year’s confidence and form, but nothing has stuck. He went into the All-Star break with a 4.75 ERA, and today it’s 4.67 — in whittling terms, that’s the equivalent of one-half carve of the knife. At this rate, it’s going to be hard for Porcello to make a case for himself as better than Pomeranz or Fister when it comes to drawing up a postseason starting rotation. In theory, Porcello should slot in right behind Sale, but in a reality that includes Porcello’s shaky postseason record (5.66 ERA in seven appearances), he’s their fourth-most reliable starter. If he can gain momentum with three or four encouraging starts this month, that would be a cherished gift for the Red Sox.
Michael blazed own trail
The death of former Yankees executive Gene Michael Thursday was a tremendous loss to baseball. The wise and gentlemanly Michael was the brains behind the dynasty the Yankees assembled in the 1990s, when he was able to work with and around his volatile boss, George Steinbrenner, and assemble via the farm system and savvy trades a team that would bedevil the Red Sox for more than a decade before the Sox finally gained some measure of revenge in 2004. Buster Olney’s indispensable book, “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty,” gives readers an insightful glimpse of just some of Michael’s smarts.
As a player, Michael was anything but a star, assembling a career 0.3 WAR over 10 seasons from 1966-75. But he was sharp, and, as Olney notes, as a young shortstop in the Pirates system, he had a hand in a signs-related incident against the Red Sox organization.
As Olney writes, Michael’s “team was getting pounded by a young Red Sox prospect named Rico Petrocelli, who later went on to star for Boston. Playing shortstop, Michael noticed Petrocelli’s whole approach to hitting was based on the ball-strike count: when he was ahead in the count, two ball and no strikes or 3-1, he would wait for fastballs — and only fastballs — and crush them. When he was behind in the count, Petrocelli would wait for breaking balls. It was a common approach, but Petrocelli was uncommonly disciplined in adhering to this strategy, and Michael informed the team’s catcher, Harper Cooper, who scoffed. Catcher and shortstop argue, until an annoyed Cooper gave in and told Michael he should call the pitches from his position. Years later, Michael vaguely recalled the system they used — he stood a little straighter for fastballs, placing his hand on his knee for a breaking ball. Petrocelli began making outs.”
In the ’90’s, Michael saved the team from the impetuous Steinbrenner many times. At one point, Steinbrenner grew impatient with a young Bernie Williams and ordered Michael to collect trade offers and then deal him. Michael had no desire to trade Williams, but he complied with Steinbrenner by calling every other team, without mentioning Williams. He then told Steinbrenner he talked to every team in baseball and no one had expressed interest in Williams.
Michael’s big league playing career ended in 1975 with Detroit. The Red Sox signed him as a free agent over that winter but released him in May 1976, after which he joined the Yankees’ front office.
Sox joining Hailey’s team
The Red Sox signaled on Friday that they want to help 7-yearold Hailey Dawson realize her dream of throwing out the first pitch for all 30 teams. Born with a rare disease, Dawson is missing three fingers on her right hand, and uses a robotic prosthetic hand. She’s taught herself to write and how to grip and throw a baseball. For details, follow @ haileys_hand on Twitter.