Just don’t stand around too long
LAS VEGAS — Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin are not facing the same problems tonight, when they square off for the undisputed middleweight championship, but the solution to them is eerily similar. Neither best stay too long in front of the other. For whom this becomes the bigger problem is likely to be the one who leaves TMobile Arena wealthier but with his reputation seriously devalued.
Golovkin holds the WBA, WBC and IBF titles, is undefeated (37-0, 33 KOs) and has knocked out 23 of the last 24 men he’s faced. He’s a 2-1 betting favorite and the heavier handed of the two. He does not possess classic one-punch knockout power like Tommy Hearns but he throws heavy shots behind a lethal jab that in combination wear opponents down with the kind of destructive consequences that left welterweight champion Kell Brook literally with a broken face.
It is not the kind of power that can be ignored. It must be respected from the opening bell until the final one, a fact not lost on Alvarez’ longtime trainers, Jose “Chepo” Reynoso and his son Eddy.
“We know there is dynamite in front of us,” Chepo conceded. “We have to pay attention so it doesn’t explode that night. His power is something we have to be wary of. We respect his power. We know what it is.”
To prevent that explosion, Alvarez must first neutralize or at least find ways to cope with Golovkin’s stiff jab. It is not simply a range finder. It is like a terrible, swift sword capable of inflicting serious damage, the kind that can set up power punches behind it later in a fight. Because of that, it is a tricky proposition.
“It’s not just the jab that has to be neutralized,” Eddy Reynoso said. “It’s a lot of aspects. He doesn’t just have the jab. He’s a very aggressive fighter, a very strong fighter that comes forward and will take a couple of punches to land one.”
It is that aspect of Golovkin’s attack that has led some to argue he has more of a “Mexican style” than Alvarez, a born-and-bred Mexican but one who is more a counter puncher than someone willing to take two punches to land one. That approach has worked well for the Kazakhstan-born Golovkin, who is considered among the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Because of that no one anticipates much of a change in his style unless Alvarez’ faster hands, counter punching and body shots force him to adjust.
“Canelo has very fast hands and he throws two and three combinations in a row,” Golovkin’s trainer, Abel Sanchez explained. “Gennady can’t allow him to do that. He has to be first with something after he throws. It doesn’t have to be his hands but he has to be doing something.
“Feints, stepping to one side or the other, doing something to take his mind away from what he’s thinking about when he looks to counter. He has to work three minutes of every round.
“I think my guy can box if he has to. I look at him like a head of lettuce. There are so many levels (to his weaponry). He just hasn’t had to show it. Maybe this fight he will have to. Canelo is going to give us the opportunity to use a lot more weapons.”
What Sanchez understands is that Golovkin cannot simply plow forward, trying to walk through Alvarez, because Alvarez’ hand speed will create problems that must be solved with technical proficiency, not simply firepower. After he throws, Golovkin must be moving his head and upper body enough to not run into the counter shots that have made Alvarez the junior middleweight champion and most popular fighter in Mexico.
For Alvarez, the problem is somewhat the same. He will be trying to land the body shots for which he is deservedly well known to slow Golovkin’s forward motion and take his legs slowly away. But to land body punches requires he do a dangerous thing.
“There will be moments I’ve got to take risks to attack his body, but I’ve got to be thinking,” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) conceded. “I can’t be a target for him to hit. I have to attack his body but I have to attack his head too. Everywhere has to be attacked.”
Alvarez’ counters have to be thrown with care not to leave him standing in front of Golovkin for long when he’s finished. Early in the fight he may have to throw fewer of them before moving laterally, escaping before his opponent has time to reload. That is easier said than done, but Alvarez does have two things working to his advantage.
The first is superior hand speed, which could prove telling later in the fight. The other is that his best punches are the left hook and the uppercut. Both have proven particularly vexing for Golovkin, especially in his last two outings. He beat Brook and then Danny Jacobs but was hit a dangerously high number of times in those fights by those type of punches.
Those two fights have also led some to speculate that age has begun to weigh on the 35-year-old Golovkin. Even the normally reserved Eddy Reynoso conceded, “What I’ve noticed is Golovkin is more vulnerable to punches now.”
If that’s the case, Alvarez’ fast hands will deliver them. While Sanchez acknowledges that, he also believes they won’t arrive with the same fierce consequences as Golovkin’s.
“He throws fast combinations but he has a tendency to get sloppy (as the fight goes on) and begin to slap,” Sanchez said. “To hit the body, Canelo has to expose himself. I don’t think he has the punching power Golovkin has. He doesn’t have the snap. I think it will be competitive for four or five rounds but Canelo will succumb to Golovkin’s physicality. We just need to be patient.”
Although their methods of attack will be different — Golovkin looking to press and impose his size advantage on Alvarez while the latter looks to beat him to the punch with superior hand speed, each is facing the same dilemma. How long can I stay in the pocket and throw before I’ve overstayed my welcome?
The fighter who best figures out that calculus will have his hand raised tonight.