Jose moves closer to the Cape; Maria gains power
MIAMI — Hurricane Jose strengthened slightly yesterday as it headed up the eastern seaboard, with a threat of storm surges on Massachusetts’ South Coast, while Tropical Storm Maria became a Category 1 hurricane, expected to hit the Leeward Islands today and become a major hurricane as it nears Puerto Rico on its way north.
A “burst of convection” occurred in Maria’s center yesterday afternoon, with an open eyewall forming in the storm’s core, National Hurricane Center forecasters said. Because the storm is compact, it could quickly intensify as it moves over warm ocean waters and faces weak wind shear, they said.
Over the next three days, National Hurricane Center forecasters say Maria likely will intensify to a major Category 3 storm as it nears the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands. It could weaken slightly, but then regain strength as it approaches Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
A stronger Maria could cause wind speeds to vary slightly if it undergoes eyewall replacements, which big storms are prone to do.
Hurricane advisories continued to extend across Caribbean islands battered by Irma as the storm approaches. Forecast models generally agree on a track that takes Maria near Guadalupe and the northern islands of the Lesser Antilles today and near Puerto Rico tomorrow as a major hurricane.
It’s too soon to tell how Maria might affect Florida or other parts of the Southeast. Early models show the storm moving toward Florida and up the East Coast, but forecasts so far in advance can be hundreds of miles off.
As it nears the coast, Hurricane Jose, now about 355 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras and headed toward New England, could be a factor in where Maria goes. If Jose weakens the ridge steering the storm, it could allow Maria to take a track more to the northwest or north-northwest. If not, the storm will likely keep heading to the westnorthwest.
Yesterday morning, Jose strengthened slightly, but forecasters say it will likely weaken in the coming days as it faces stronger wind shear, and then moves over colder water. They expect it to weaken again to a tropical storm in three to four days.
While Jose is projected to weaken and veer away from any direct impact on the coast, the Hurricane Center said a minor shift could bring tropical-storm-force winds to North Carolina’s Outer Banks or areas to the north.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center advised people from North Carolina to New England to monitor Jose’s progress.