Almost a lock: Pats re-cover
Picking winners against the spread in the NFL seems to get harder every year. And with each new season, there are more statistics and trends to assist gamblers in making choices.
Sifting through those numbers can give you a headache, but when it comes to Patriots games, there is one trend that never, ever should be ignored:
12-3.
That’s the Pats record against the spread following regular-season losses the past five seasons.
It reached 80 percent after yesterday’s 36-20 win against the Saints in New Orleans, a game in which the Patriots were favored by 6 points. There was plenty of gloom and doom following the team’s opening loss to Kansas City at home, with people wondering if
PROPHET MARGIN Chris Letourneau
the Pats will be able the cover the big spreads that seem to follow them each week. Most of the questions surrounded the defense, which had given up tons of points and yards and sustained some injuries.
But if Tom Brady and the offense continue to move up and down the field as easily as they did yesterday, no spread will be safe.
Keep that 12-3 record tucked away for the next time the Pats lose, if it even happens again this season. It’s almost an automatic cover the following week.
Their record leveled at 1-1 against the spread this year. If you bet the over, you were terribly disappointed when the teams fell just shy of the 57-point total, especially after the score was 30-13 at halftime. The under was the correct call for the first time this season. Expect a bunch more totals in the 50s if this offense stays hot.
Next week the Pats host the Houston Texans, who looked anemic and boring despite beating the Cincinnati Bengals, 13-9, on Thursday night. They also were drubbed, 29-7, by the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 1. The line for Sunday’s game opened with the Patriots as 12-point favorites.
Lots of experts talked during the preseason about how the Texans were the team best equipped to ruin the Pats’ undefeated season. Both notions are jokes.
The Patriots already lost, and the Texans are having a miserable time moving the ball, even with Deshaun Watson now at quarterback.
Take the Pats to cover the big spread. And if they somehow lose, bet them even bigger the following week.