Where rookie QBs go to lose
Foxboro an unfriendly place for youngsters
The Patriots opened the week as 13-point favorites against the Houston Texans, who come to town Sunday with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson running the offense.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS Evan Lazar
You’ll have to forgive the Patriots if they are licking their chops with a rookie quarterback across the line of scrimmage. That’s because Bill Belichick’s defenses have a history of stymieing such youngsters. The Patriots are 16-5 against rookie signal-callers since 2001, and that includes an 8-0 mark in Foxboro. Watson, the 12th overall draft pick who was elevated to the top job after Tom Savage was benched during a 27-9 loss to the Jaguars in Week 1, earned a win in his first career start last Thursday, a 13-9 victory in Cincinnati. Unfortunately for Watson, he can’t play the woeful Bengals every week.
It’s a lot easier out-scoring Andy Dalton than it is Tom Brady, especially coming off a game in which the Patriots quarterback had the thirdhighest single-game passing yards total of his career. And now Watson is trying to do what no opposing rookie QB ever has done — win in Gillette Stadium. Since 2001, rookie starters have a passer rating of 64.5 against the Patriots. (For comparison, the league average last year was 89.3.) They have tossed more interceptions (30) than touchdowns (19) while throwing for just 196 yards per game.
The last rookie quarterback to beat the Patriots was the Jets’ Geno Smith, who was under center for a 30-27 overtime win at MetLife Stadium in 2013. But Smith, who scored a second-half touchdown in that game, had a passer rating of only 71.9.
The Jets put Smith in an exclusive club of passers that have beaten the Pats in their rookie campaigns.
Some of the names you’ll recognize as Super Bowl winners. Ben Roethlisberger led the Steelers in 2004 when they ended the Patriots’ NFLrecord 21-game winning streak with a 34-20 victory. In 2012, it was Seattle’s Russell Wilson who served notice of his arrival with a surprise 24-23 win against the Patriots.
The other names are outliers: Mark Sanchez in 2009 (with help from the Jets defense in a 16-9 win), and Colt McCoy in 2010 (with help from Peyton Hills’ 184 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a 33-14 shocker for the Browns).
In recent seasons, there are some notable first-year quarterbacks who have attempted to take down the Patriots, but none has had much success.
Before he became an MVP candidate, Derek Carr led a young Raiders team into Foxboro in 2014 but failed to lead his team on a touchdown drive and fell to the Pats 16-9. Last season, the Rams’ Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall pick, mustered just 162 yards of total offense against Bill Belichick’s defense, the fewest by an opposing team against the Pats in 10 seasons.
So for Watson, the odds of a win in Foxboro this weekend are daunting.
The former Clemson star’s legs accounted for the game’s only touchdown when he beat the Bengals last week in a game that featured 16 combined punts.
So expect the Patriots to try to bottle Watson up in the pocket and make him beat them with his arm.
The 22-year-old Watson has thrown just 47 passes in his NFL career, and his 4.8 yards per attempt ranks second-tolast among quarterbacks with at least 45 pass attempts this season.
Houston likely would be a heavy underdog against the Patriots regardless of which quarterback (Watson or Savage) lines up under center. But based on past attempts by rookie challengers, Watson and the Texans are attempting the near-impossible.