CHASING MARTY
TODAY: A Walsh mandate – or a Tito surprise?
Mayor Martin J. Walsh is looking for a devastating blow. Tito Jackson needs to show his campaign isn’t a hopeless cause.
The two mayoral rivals will find out tonight who achieves their goals in a lowturnout preliminary election that gives the top two finishers the right to square off in November.
Walsh is all but certain to come in first in today’s election, while Jackson is strongly favored to snag the number two spot, but perceptions are everything.
If Jackson fails to get enough votes — at least 20-25 percent of the total — to show he can be competitive, it would seriously wound his campaign to become Boston’s first black mayor.
And if Walsh fails to get any more than just 50 percent of the vote, it would be a disappointment and a sign that his heavily funded campaign isn’t the juggernaut it looks to be on paper. He might even actually be forced to debate.
The biggest battleground will be in Jackson’s home neighborhood of Roxbury and in other nonwhite areas of the city. Walsh is making a big push there, and in areas like Mattapan, in the hopes of embarrassing his rival.
“Walsh is not taking this lightly,” said Emerson College professor Spencer Kimball, who runs the school’s polling society. Walsh held five campaign events last weekend and has scheduled a big rally tonight in Dorchester where he hopes to celebrate a convincing win. He even got Attorney General Maura Healey to go out and campaign for him.
Walsh will win big — the only question is by how much. A poll by Emerson last week gave Walsh a 31-point lead over Jackson. If Walsh pushes his totals to close to 60 percent, it’s curtains for the challenger.
But it’s possible the polls are underestimating Jackson’s support. Four years ago Charlotte Golar Richie, bidding to become the first black mayor, surged at the end and nearly snagged one of the top two spots.
If Jackson does surprisingly well in Roxbury and in other wards that comprise the South End, Mattapan, Mission Hill — even Jamaica Plain — then that would send a scare to the mayor.
“If he can solidify a base out there and show something ... perhaps that could add some pressure onto the Walsh campaign,” Kimball said.
One of the biggest questions heading into today’s election is who will actually show up to vote. The campaign has had low visibility compared to other Boston elections, partly due to the fact that Walsh refused to debate Jackson and the two other mayoral candidates, former School Committee member Robert Cappucci and Joseph Wiley, a health insurance worker. Turnout will likely be in the 25 percent range, well below what it was four years ago.
The keys to Jackson’s hopes could lie in neighborhoods like JP, which comprises the type of liberal voters that may be attracted to the city councilor’s message. If turnout is heavier than expected there and in Roxbury, it would be a good night for Jackson.
But it won’t be easy. Walsh holds a massive fundraising advantage and the power of the office — meaning there will be a lot of city workers out at the polls today holding Walsh signs.