Navy the right option at Memphis
It’s hard enough to have one really good week picking college football games. It’s even harder to do it twice in a row.
What’s the secret? If I knew, I’d be on an island somewhere, but I always like to seek out an underdog that’s playing well and has a favorable matchup.
This week it’s No. 25 Navy, a team everyone loves to get behind, even in a divided nation. The Midshipmen are 5-0 and (surprise, surprise) boast the nation’s top-ranked rushing offense. Their option attack averages 414.2 yards per game on the ground, a baffling number that has fueled wins against Cincinnati, Tulane and Air Force at home, and Florida Atlantic and Tulsa on the road.
Tomorrow, Navy visits 4-1 Memphis in an American Athletic Conference West Division battle. The Middies are 3-point underdogs despite beating the Tigers the past two years by a combined 87-48.
Junior quarterback Zach Abey isn’t the same special talent as record-setting Keenan Reynolds, but he is thriving in this offense, rushing for 870 yards and nine touchdowns. And does it really matter who plays quarterback? Coach Ken Niumatalolo’s system is the same as Paul Johnson’s, using precision blocking schemes and option looks to grind opponents into submission.
In the AAC, it works. The Tigers defense is ranked 93rd against the run, and they’ve allowed 31 points to a weak UConn offense and 40 to Central Florida.
Navy will give up points but will dominate on the ground and limit the number of Memphis’ possessions. The Middies should win this game outright.
In other games:
SATURDAY Mississippi State (-24) vs. BYU — The 1-5 Cougars uncharacteristically rank near the bottom of Division 1 in almost every offensive category and visit a Bulldogs team looking to beat up on someone after consecutive road losses to SEC powers Georgia and Auburn. State has a history of beating up nonconference foes and will get revenge in a big way for last year’s 28-21 loss to BYU.
Michigan (-7) at Indiana — The No. 17 Wolverines are coming off a brutal loss in the rain to Michigan State made possible by five turnovers. Quarterback John O’Korn struggled mightily, but this week he’ll get help from the running game against a porous Indiana defense. Hoosiers freshman QB Peyton Ramsey will be harassed all afternoon in a blowout.
Boston College at Louisville (over 56) — Last week’s loss at North Carolina State can’t feel good for the Cardinals, whose defense was exposed and actually might allow a couple of TDs against BC’s feeble offense. But Lamar Jackson will rack up points like he did in last year’s 52-7 rout. This ends in the 45-20 range.
Auburn (-7) at LSU — Back in 1999, Auburn beat LSU 41-7 on Tommy Tuberville’s 45th birthday in Baton Rouge and arrogantly smoked cigars on the field to celebrate. LSU took offense and hasn’t lost a home game in the series since. Maybe that’s why this line is so low. History won’t matter tomorrow. LSU is a mess. No.10 Auburn is the real deal and will win by three touchdowns.
Vanderbilt (+31⁄2) at Mississippi — Ole Miss’ offense is not good, its only success coming against South Alabama and Tennessee Martin. Vanderbilt’s defense is excellent, and while the offense isn’t flashy, it protects the ball, with only three turnovers this season. Vandy won by 21 last year and should pull away in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma (-8) at Texas — The Red River Shootout is the game of the weekend, and despite last week’s loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield remains the best player on the field. He hasn’t thrown a pick this season and will keep that streak alive while dusting an improved but vulnerable Longhorns defense. The No. 12 Sooners will prove they are not out of the national title picture yet.
Colorado (-10) at Oregon State — The Buffaloes have taken a step back from their solid 2016 season, losing three straight. But this pick is about the disaster that is Oregon State. Gary Andersen’s sudden departure Monday from a 1-5 team that only has beaten Portland State means the Beavers already have their eyes focused on 2018. Recipe for a blowout. Last week: 6-1 Season: 24-22