Don’t bank on Stanton
In long run, it won’t pay
LOS ANGELES — It’s OK for the Red Sox to gawk, to admire and even admit to lust in their hearts.
How could they not? Giancarlo Stanton is only the best pure power threat currently residing on the planet, an almost cartoonishly chiseled modern-day sultan of swat. Of course the Red Sox will explore the notion of trading for him as soon as the Marlins, seemingly inevitably, put him on the market.
But as desperate as the Sox are for power — yep, they need it baaaaaad — they have to take that proverbial cold shower in order to stand firm and resist the temptation of trading for the Stanton model.
There are alternatives. Say hello, free agents J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer.
And we’ll get to those just-say-no-toStanton reasons soon but on the face of it, the rationale for the Red Sox turning their back on Stanton sure is counterintuitive.
This won’t be easy.
As luck would have it, “Drooling for Stanton,” this offseason’s branding opportunity, began in earnest last night before Game 2 of the World Series when the Marlins slugger supreme stopped by in street clothes to accept his second Hank Aaron Award for best offensive player in the National League.
With 59 home runs, 132 RBI and a .631 slugging percentage, Stanton was an easy choice for the voters. He’s probably going to win the NL MVP as well, another occasion which will give members of the media the excuse they found last night to ask him about what’s up with him this offseason.
Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his contract, you see, so there’s a game he and the Marlins and their new owner, Derek Jeter, need to play. The Marlins aren’t close to winning and they’re also hamstrung by the heavily back-loaded $295 million remaining on Stanton’s contract that does not expire until 2027, although there is an opt-out for him after 2020.
Stanton, who turns 28 next month, understands that if he wants to join a winning team in the near future, he will need to eventually OK a trade.
But so far, he said, there is little to go on.
“From the new ownership group, no — I think we’re all going to take care of that after the World Series,” Stanton said.
The Miami right fielder played the decision he faces carefully and deliberately, betraying nothing.
“I don’t know, to be honest,” he said about a gut feeling on what will happen. “I’ve had thoughts on both sides, but I don’t know any specifics.”
His decision, if there is one, lies ahead, OK?
“I’ll figure out those plans and the specifics when we get there,” Stanton said. “I don’t have stamped-out ideas for that.”
While Stanton and the Marlins prepare for their dance that should conclude with the mutual decision to accelerate a break-up, the Red Sox can seize the moment to take a deep breath.
Without even diving into the sheer mess of sending top-shelf young talent to the Marlins, the bigger so-called “problem” of the Red Sox (and, again, plenty of other teams) trading for Stanton is that he simply is not worth the bucks, never mind the prospect of sending young talent to the Marlins. (Caveat 1: If the Marlins and Stanton are open to renegotiating the contract to make it less onerous on a team trading for him, then forget this was written.)
It’s not that Stanton wouldn’t smash, mash and bash as well as anybody else not named Aaron Judge for the next decade or so, but he’s not the only person in baseball capable of hitting a bunch of home runs.
If you go into a car dealership where every make of car is available with a pocketful of cash, you are not obligated to drive off with the snazziest Jaguar or most miraculous Tesla. That doesn’t mean you need to purchase a sensible Toyota, either.
But a Lexus, maybe a nice Acura or BMW? That’s what the Red Sox need, a high-end but not impossibly priced bauble like Stanton.
His contract would be a disaster for the Red Sox. The salary begins to grow more and more in Stanton’s post-peak years, cresting at $32 million for 202325, when he will be 33-35 years old.
It feels funny to be preaching fiscal responsibility to the Red Sox. Should I care if they bust the payroll threshold and pay countless millions in luxury taxes for what might be decades if not centuries?
The Sox are most likely going to blow past the threshold anyway in 2018 (Caveat 2: Unless they can trade away some big contracts) but the hit that Stanton’s salary next year ($25 million) would make is already too much of a burden, and it would only get heavier.
There’s a better, more prudent way to spend the owners’ dollars than sinking way too many of them into the lap of Stanton, who, we need to add, has had a problem staying healthy and playing full seasons.
There’s no guarantee that Stanton would even approve a trade to Boston.
The Red Sox should keep that temptation from ever reaching Stanton’s plate.