Sox not so free to pay
Young stars limit FA options
The days of the New York Yankees spending like the New York Yankees are over.
“We are getting under the (luxury tax) threshold next year,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the New York Post last month, indicating the Yankees’ payroll would fall under $197 million in 2018.
As for the Red Sox, think in the other direction.
Much, much farther in the other direction.
The Red Sox cleared their first $200 million payroll in 2016, and while they wiggled under the $195 million luxury tax threshold in 2017 president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said on Monday he did not anticipate having to stay under the luxury tax threshold next season. Team owner John Henry seconded that.
Why? Well, they don’t have to make a single free agent signing this winter and the 2018 Red Sox would already be over $200 million.
The young guys aren’t cheap anymore.
Looking past all the eight-figure salaries, they have $51 million in expected arbitration salaries to pay out.
Mookie Betts is projected to make $8.2 million in his first year of arbitration this year, according to MLB Trade Rumors. By those same projections, Xander Bogaerts could make $7.6 million in his second year, Jackie Bradley Jr. $5.9 million in his second year and Drew Pomeranz $9.1 million in his third and final arbitration year.
The Red Sox will keep paying Pablo Sandoval (he’ll count for roughly $18.5 million this year and next).
Add up all the salaries, the money toward player benefits and cash to fill out the 40-man roster, and the Red Sox are at about $201 million without making a single move.
So what does this mean for offseason spending? Perhaps quite a bit.
On everything over $197 million, they’ll pay a 20 percent tax, since they’re only first-year offenders (this is why it was important to reset by going under in 2017, otherwise that would be a 50 percent tax). There are additional taxes when teams go over by $20 million, then a higher tax when going over by $40 million.
Should the tax restrict their spending? Fans could argue it shouldn’t. The Red Sox raised ticket prices again this year and the whole organization was valued at $2.7 billion by Forbes back in April.
But there is a limit, and that is likely to come at $237 million in 2018, because any team that goes more than $40 million over the threshold is going to see their first draft pick fall 10 spots the following June (unless they’re picking in the top six, which would be a catastrophe for any team with a payroll that high).
Maybe the Sox can free some salary via trade. Do they have enough starting depth to explore dealing Rick Porcello ($20.65 million annually through 2019)? Or perhaps they’ll have to consider parting with Bradley, who could bring cost-controllable talent to fill holes in the bullpen or the infield and slide Andrew Benintendi to center field. That opens a spot for a big bat to play left.
But the idea that the Sox should be signing multiple big-ticket free agents this winter seems far-fetched.
And it could get less likely in the future.
Hanley Ramirez ($22 million average), Craig Kimbrel ($13 million) and Pomeranz are the only heavy salaries guaranteed to come off the books in 2019. Any more long-term commitments are going to hamper their ability to spend next winter, when Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson, among others, will form perhaps the best free agent class in history.
The threshold will jump from $197 million to $206 million in 2019, but that’s not enough to keep pace with the expected increase in salary for the Red Sox youngsters, especially if any of them sign long-term extensions.
So the Red Sox should have $36 million to play with as hot stove season begins.
If Dombrowski plays his cards right, that should be plenty to help a 93-win team add enough talent to make a run at the Houston Astros.