Deval has clearest path to 2020 nomination

With Democrats claiming victory in the 2017 elections and Donald Trump’s approval ratings mired in the mid-30s, political chatter has turned predictably to 2020 and who could, or should, be the Democrats’ presidential nominee.

The chatter has intensified with Joe Biden’s book tour; in Massachusetts, the buzz hovers over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton.

But the Massachusetts resident who may have the clearest path to the nomination is one who has kept a low profile: former Gov. Deval Patrick. If he wants the nomination — and so far he shows little lust for the limelight — Patrick would have certain distinct advantages over other potential candidates.

The early Democratic contests would be hospitable for a Patrick candidacy. Iowa Democrats warmly received Patrick’s friend — and early booster — Barack Obama. They would likely receive Patrick the same way, and Patrick brings a gift for political organizing that would serve him well in the Iowa caucuses, as would the Hawkeye State’s network of Obama loyalists.

In New Hampshire, Patrick would find support from Democrats who regard his tenure as governor of a neighboring state with admiration, and an army of activists drawn from across the border ready to hit the hustings for him.

South Carolina’s sizable bloc of African-American voters would furnish him a potent base. A Democratic nomination fight frontloaded with favorable political territory could make Patrick unstoppable before March.

Further, in a Democratic party riven by residual hostility between the Clinton and Sanders wings, Patrick — by nature and training a healer — is well positioned to hold the party together. His bona fides as a progressive cannot seriously be challenged other than by nut cases, while his other experiences have historically enabled him to gather competing factions under one roof.

Finally, as former TV political reporter Andy Hiller has observed, American politics is characterized by a “swing back” phenomenon, in which one presidency makes Americans long for the qualities of the one that preceded it.

For most Americans, the Trump presidency falls somewhere between a nauseating roller coaster ride and a national nightmare. Patrick’s steady stewardship of a major industrial state through the financial meltdown that hit shortly after he took office, and his balanced manner, may look mighty appealing by 2020.

Patrick has thus far steered clear of the speculation. But the political pundits would do well to keep him very much in mind.