Second-ary decisions
Trade for Kinsler could work
The names that were being thrown around in Orlando last week, when president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was asked about Dustin Pedroia’s replacement options, might have been palatable if the Red Sox were a mid-market team not in dire need of offensive potency.
But it’s tougher to swallow for a team valued by Forbes to be worth $2.7 billion, and one that skimped and saved to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold in 2017 so it could spend freely in 2018 and beyond.
That’s why when a name like Ian Kinsler, the ultradurable, four-time All-Star and power-hitting second baseman for the Detroit Tigers, is being dangled by his current team, the Red Sox should be giving it some thought.
The risks of passing over Kinsler, just like the risks that the Sox won’t be able to lure a premium utility man like Eduardo Nunez out of free agency for a part-time role, are too steep. The alternative is potentially a black hole at second base.
The Sox, notorious for being overly-optimistic when projecting return dates for injured players, have said that Pedroia’s cartilage restoration procedure was going to take seven months before he was ready to return. That procedure took place on Oct. 25.
If we assume the 34-year old has no setbacks and is ready to return to the lineup on May 25, that will be more than eight weeks after the regular season begins.
Can a Sox team that had a .736 OPS last year, the fifthlowest OPS the franchise has seen in 30 years, put their trust in backups for eight weeks, if not longer?
The names, in order, that Dombrowski listed as possible replacements include Brock Holt (career .690 OPS, unreliable post-concussions), Marco Hernandez (coming off shoulder surgery, .676 OPS in majors, .752 OPS at Triple A), TzuWei Lin (.709 OPS with Sox in ’17, career .635 OPS in minors) and Deven Marrero (career .568 OPS in majors, .644 OPS in minors).
“I think we have enough internally,” to fill Pedroia’s shoes, Dombrowski told reporters in Orlando. “But I’m not going to preclude what we’re going to do because I don’t know that. It depends what other options we might have.”
Further, what happens when Pedroia returns?
“I’m not going to say he’s going to play like he was when he was 25, but that he’ll be able to continue to play and play healthy,” Dombrowski said.
The careful option might be to take the wait-and-see approach and hope that by July they’ll have a good idea of what they have.
Whoever they get to play first base/DH must create offense, so too must Hanley Ramirez, coming off another shoulder surgery. And Rafael Devers must withstand the test of his sophomore season.
There are bound to be holes by July. Every team has them. Teams relying on oft-injured players, like Ramirez and Pedroia, are more susceptible.
Kinsler is making $11 million in 2018 before he becomes a free agent and it’s no secret the Tigers would like to trade him. He’s 35 years old but is rarely on the disabled list, averaging 151 games over the last seven years. He’s a weapon on defense — a Gold Glove finalist again this year — can still run (14 stolen bases) and hit for power (22 homers).
He has a no-trade clause to 10 unidentified teams, a potential roadblock, but one might think he would waive it to go to the Sox, where he could hit in the middle of what should be an improved lineup in a hitter-friendly park.
Of course, this scenario would require some flexibility by Kinsler.
One of the premier second basemen in the game, would he be willing to move around the diamond when Pedroia returns? If the Sox sign a DH like J.D. Martinez, perhaps Kinsler can slide to first base on most days. Maybe Devers struggles against lefties, and Kinsler can play third base twice a week.
It might bring back memories of their time together at Arizona State, when Kinsler was supposed to be the starting shortstop but was bumped off the position by Pedroia, prompting Kinsler’s eventual transfer to Missouri.
There are roadblocks, but the Sox should try. They have financial flexibility to go after a big-time slugger like Giancarlo Stanton or Eric Hosmer and still try for a strong secondary addition to play second base and provide insurance at other positions.
Nunez, if he’s healthy and willing, would be a nice fit, but he’s expected to command a multi-year contract and is sure to get better offers from teams willing to guarantee him a starting job.
If Kinsler could be acquired on a one-year deal, it would give the Sox so much of what they need. Power. Speed. Reliability. And, if he’s willing, flexibility. All on a one-year contract that would let them reevaluate second base after 2018.