Five things to watch
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Hello, old friends. The Patriots and Dolphins meet tonight for the second time in 15 days, and a national audience will be treated to yet another dose of the underwhelming hosts from South Beach.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have one more task at hand before the most important test of the regular season. But before they reach that Steelers showdown, here are five things to watch for tonight:
The Brady plan
Last week, the Patriots won a game for the first time in 10 years when Tom Brady had no touchdowns and one interception. It’s probably safe to say that if they’re going to win tonight, he won’t be repeating that stat line. Far more importantly, the offensive line has to keep the thirsty Dolphins off Brady’s back, as that group was responsible for a sack, six quarterback hits and two pressures in the first meeting. Brady has missed practices in three consecutive weeks because of the ongoing pounding, and it’s particularly troubling against the Dolphins, who hit to hurt as well as disrupt. Remember, they sprained Brady’s ankle in the 2015 regular-season finale, and Ndamukong Suh has a reputation as one of the dirtiest players in the league.
Back and forth
Since Week 8, when Chris Hogan went down and Rex Burkhead became a focal part of the offense, the running backs have been a more significant factor than the receivers, and the backs figure to be the dominant group without Rob Gronkowski. In that stretch, Burkhead, Dion Lewis and James White have 922 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns, including 39 receptions for 313 yards and four scores. Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, Phillip Dorsett and Hogan have 645 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns, including 50 catches for 629 yards. Those stats are somewhat apples to oranges because the backs are involved in both the run and passing game, but it’s a way to illustrate the likelihood that they’ll be heavily relied upon without Gronkowski.
Going Gronkless
Rob Gronkowski’s suspension could actually yield some suspense. Gronk had five catches for 82 yards and his second two-touchdown game of the season in the Pats’ 35-17 win on Nov. 26, and there’s no chance one of his replacements will replicate that output. However, Dwayne Allen, who didn’t have a catch despite six targets in his first eight games of the season, now has five receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown in his last four. Not great, but it’s something. The biggest issue at play here might involve the Dolphins pass rush as it relates to Tom Brady’s inclination to unload the ball quickly to a trusted receiver. Chris Hogan could return, which would help a ton, and Danny Amendola will need to deliver over the middle as well.
A Cut(ler) below
Josh McDaniels didn’t do a lot of positive things as the Broncos head coach back in the day, but he deserves credit for being the only one to see Jay Cutler for what he’s worth. And Cutler banked an extra $10 million last offseason by convincing the Dolphins that he wasn’t retired. Cutler missed the first go-round with a concussion, but he returned last week in a 35-9 blowout of the Broncos to complete 18-of-31 passes for 235 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. Cutler has thrown five interceptions in his last two games and has been picked off in all but two contests this season. Matt Moore, who started against the Pats in Week 12, wasn’t the answer either. However, Cutler is 0-3 in his career against the Pats, and his teams have averaged 12.3 points per game.
Locking down
With Jay Cutler’s penchant for nonchalantly donating the ball to the defense — he has 157 interceptions in 149 career games, including five picks against the Pats — the Patriots’ rolling corners could boost their takeaway count. Two weeks ago, Stephon Gilmore (DeVante Parker), Malcolm Butler (Kenny Stills) and Jonathan Jones (Jarvis Landry) locked down their assignments. While in coverage, Gilmore only allowed Parker to catch a 5-yard pass and picked off a ball in the end zone among his three targets. Butler gave up two catches for 22 yards (one to Landry for 15 yards) and had two breakups, and Jones limited Landry to four catches for 31 yards on five targets (one breakup). While it’d be nice to see Eric Rowe get back in the mix, the Patriots can’t take their top-three corners off the field, and they should theoretically get their hands on some of Cutler’s passes.