Boras makes big deal OF it
It’s crystal clear that signing free agent outfielder/ designated hitter J.D. Martinez would go a long way toward solving the power needs of the Red Sox or any other team.
The bigger mystery and the ultimate question in play during this fluid negotiation stage Martinez and his agent, Scott Boras, are engaged in with suitors is, how much would the deal cost?
That question is a two-parter — how long of a deal and for how much per season?
The first part isn’t that tough to figure out.
The second part is. First, we can see for ourselves that Boras’ track record suggests strongly that he is touting his player to be worthy of the same investment of nearly all his other free agent outfield clients at the age of 30, which means a seven-year deal.
Of the last five or so elite 30- or 31-year-old free agent outfielders Boras has had on the market, all five inked seven-year deals.
When Matt Holliday, back in 2010, signed with the Cardinals for seven years at $17.1 million per season, he was a 30-yearold free agent. A year later, Jayson Werth, at age 31, signed for the same number of years at $18 million per with the Nationals.
The Red Sox were engaged in each of those negotiations. The same offseason Werth signed with the Nationals, the Sox signed a non-Boras outfield free agent to a seven-year deal — 29-year-old Carl Crawford, at $20.285 million per season.
In 2014, 31-year-old ShinSoo Choo signed with the Rangers on a seven-year deal worth $18.6 million a year. That same offseason, Jacoby Ellsbury, 30, left the Red Sox to sign a sevenyear deal with the Yankees.
Not all free agent outfielders are the same, obviously, and nobody’s about to compare an outfielder like Martinez, whose chief asset by far is his power bat, with a more defense- or speed-oriented outfielder like Ellsbury.
Of all those Boras clients, Martinez is the sole one to have a season with an OPS over 1.000. Last season, split between the Tigers and Diamondbacks, Martinez had an OPS of 1.107.
But how much per year for Martinez?
Not so clear.
The most recent free agent outfielder known for his power to sign a major deal would be short-time Red Sox left fielder Yoenis Cespedes, who last offseason, at age 31, signed a four-year deal with the Mets worth $27.5 million per season. The deal represents the top annual average value of an outfielder in big league history.
In comparison to Martinez, the performance of Cespedes falls short. Over the last four seasons, Martinez has out-homered Cespedes, 128-105, with an OPS of .936 compared to .841. And it’s more difficult to find glowing recommendations about Cespedes in terms of his clubhouse presence or being a good teammate than it is for Martinez.
The point of the comparison above is that teams interested in Martinez will likely hear from Boras that Cespedes is not a worthy point of reference in terms of age, performance and intangibles.
That makes it difficult not to draw the conclusion that Boras will seek an annual average value that exceeds that of Cespedes. If one were to make that relatively easy leap, a $28 million per season request would mean a total value of $196 million.
Since the Red Sox are believed to be above the $197 million payroll by approximately $6 million already, they could afford the $28 million figure, and then some, without exceeding the next payroll threshold of $237 million and facing stiff tax consequences.
The other big outfield contracts right now were signed when the players were not free agents. The Angels extended Mike Trout for six years with an annual average value of $24 million and the Yankees’ newly acquired Giancarlo Stanton got 13 years with an AAV of $25 million from the Marlins.
Two years ago, Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, then the general manager of the Tigers, signed free agent Justin Upton to a six-year deal worth $22.1 million per season.
Where’s this all leading? A big payday for Martinez, to be sure.
Just how big, nobody knows.