THIS TOO SHALL PASS
Experts agree: Brady will put throw woes behind him in playoffs
December is usually one of Tom Brady’s best months of the season. It’s when he typically plays his best football.
So why haven’t we seen that December rush from Brady this year?
PATRIOTS BEAT Karen Guregian
It’s not that the G.O.A.T. has been terrible. He’s just been a little off by his standards. He’s thrown six picks in his last five games, which is outrageous by Brady’s code of excellence. In the past four games he’s completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 1,013 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions, including a pick-six last week against Buffalo.
Because it’s Brady, and because he’s 40, the interception tally stands out like First Night fireworks over Boston Harbor.
The worry alarms go off seeing him off target. But he’s also rallied at times and been his dominating self. The game-winning drive against the Steelers two weeks ago was pure magic.
The question remains: Should anyone be concerned about the four-time Super Bowl MVP, as the Pats prepare to defend their title?
Brady has been dealing with an Achilles injury, believed to be a bruise, along with a left shoulder injury. Neither is considered a major problem, but could they be impacting his delivery?
Hall of Fame quarterback and NFL Network analyst Kurt Warner worked the broadcast of the Patriots’ Monday night loss in Miami, one of Brady’s worst of the season with two picks and a 59.5 passer rating. Warner said Brady “didn’t look like himself” in that game.
“They got quick pressure on him early in the game, and he looked out of sorts in the pocket. He missed some things that were not typical of Tom Brady, and as I’ve watched the last few games, I kind of feel the same way,” Warner said. “Something’s a little off. It’s hard to know if it’s an injury, or if he’s just going through a stretch and he knows he’s off a little bit and he’s pressing. His technique has gotten away from him at times, so that will lead to some inaccurate throws. But I think the bottom line is, I believe in those games, they’re 4-1. Everybody wants to panic, but he still does enough, and finds ways to make plays when they need him to make plays. That’s the bottom line for any quarterback.”
Warner doesn’t see age creeping up on him. He suspects the foot injury is likely leading to many of Brady’s wayward throws in the face of constant pressure from the defenses the Patriots have faced. The interceptions have also all come on third down, suggesting Brady trying a little too hard to make a play.
“To me it’s just accuracy, not velocity, so it’s more technique oriented than physical. He’s not struggling to get the ball there. He’s struggling to put it where it needs to be sometimes. And that always lends itself to letting your technique get away from you,” Warner said. “So maybe it is a foot injury. Maybe it is an Achilles injury that’s bothering you. And you can’t really plant or drive or finish a throw like you’d want to. Now, you’re accuracy is going to get away from you.
“That’s all speculation on the injury, and how bad it might be. But that’s what I see more than anything. Technique getting away from him, for whatever reason, and that leads to inaccuracy, and that’s the same for every single quarterback. But I don’t see things that make me think he’s laboring, and age is catching up to him. Maybe it’s just a week off he needs. When the injury’s a little healthier, he’ll play better.”
Following today’s game with the Jets, the Patriots will have a bye before hosting a division round game.
CBS Sports analyst Boomer Esiason, like Warner, isn’t overly concerned about Brady being Brady when the calendar flips to January.
“The interesting thing is, when the money was on the line, in a game that mattered in Pittsburgh, (Rob Gronkowski) and Brady looked like they were both 25 years old again,” Esiason said. "So that is always going to be the biggest situation for him moving forward at his age — having Gronk on the field with him.
“When he’s on the field with him, they are basically unstoppable. What I saw against Pittsburgh, when they needed it most, they got the job done. It always seems like that’s Tom Brady and the Patriot Way. So I don’t get overwhelmed by an interception here, or a bad game there. I just kind of look at it when the games really do matter, they seem to take it to another level.”
Last season, Brady posted his highest December passer rating (99.9) since 2011 (105.0). Perhaps he was fresher because he sat out the first four games of the year on his Deflategate suspension. His passer rating this month (81.5) is the lowest since 2002 (67.5) when he threw picks in his final three games and the Pats failed to make the playoffs.
“I’m aware this hasn’t happened since 2002. I would say it’s a little unusual. I get all that,” CBS Sports analyst and former quarterback Rich Gannon said. “I think people are overreacting a little bit. It’d be one thing to say he’s throwing 15 or 18 picks this season. That’s uncharacteristic. But if I’m not mistaken, there’s only one other quarterback who’s thrown fewer interceptions, and that’s Alex Smith. (Brady) has thrown eight on the season, and thrown the ball almost 550 times. His interception percentage (for the season) is lower than his career number. That’s phenomenal. So I think it’s an overreaction.”
Gannon, the 2002 NFL MVP, is ready to crown Brady as the MVP again.
“I sent in my MVP vote yesterday,” he said. “I’m happy to tell you it was Tom Brady.”
Brady has been without Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell all year. He’s also now had to deal with the absence of Chris Hogan. But Brady has adjusted to all the new parts and still put up an MVP-worthy campaign, recent speed bumps notwithstanding.
“His decision-making is fine,” said former teammate Jim Miller. “The way he’s throwing the football is fine. I do think because of the Achilles injury, I noticed he was not driving, or pushing off, and driving the ball well in the Miami game. I was at that game. He under-threw (Brandin) Cooks for the interception. I didn’t think he was pushing off or driving well. I assume it’s his right Achilles. So I think that’s part of the problem, because he left a couple balls short.”
The Sirius XM NFL host knows how tough Brady is. He saw him beat the Steelers in the 2005 AFC title game despite a high fever.
Said Miller: “Tommy had the flu. You wouldn’t have known. (Offensive coordinator) Josh McDaniels, they were all worried. ‘Will he be able to go?’ Tom puts on a wet suit, you would have thought he was in tiptop shape even though he was under the weather.”
“Things like that, he has a mental toughness about him, that he overcomes it. When it’s crunch time, he’s oblivious to it all. It’s like the movie ‘Grumpy Old Men.’ He just gets Grumpier. He powers through.”