Next winter chillin’ early

Red Sox’ offseason forecast clouded by future dealings

Every offseason happens in the shadows, and in the context of every other offseason.

Expiring contracts create holes. Developing prospects create opportunity. Past commitments become obligations. Future free agents become considerations.

The Red Sox are experiencing that reality this winter as a 2014 decision to sign Hanley Ramirez stands as a financial roadblock, and Ramirez’ 2019 option looms as a potential problem. Three years of Mookie Betts means a substantial raise through arbitration, while two good months of Rafael Devers suggests three more years of well-below-marketvalue production.

The slow nature of this winter might actually be explained by looking ahead to next winter. Teams anticipating what could be the richest, deepest free agent class in memory might be hesitant to spend on this relatively weak class.

As we wait for this offseason to inch forward, it’s worth looking ahead to all that the Red Sox must consider in the near future. Prediction is often a fool’s errand in this game — just a few years ago, we might have predicted Rusney Castillo and Yoan Moncada playing key roles in Boston without imagining Chris Sale or Andrew Benintendi — but some contractual situations come with clear endpoints, and those markers carry at least some level of predictability.

The Red Sox’ situation this winter has been well established, but here’s a look ahead to the next three offseasons:

2018-19

• Potential free agents: Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly

• Contract options: David Price, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Sale

• First-time arbitration: Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree

Next winter will be fascinating throughout baseball, and the Sox will be among the more interesting organizations.

At a time when Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson are set to become free agents — with Clayton Kershaw free to opt out — the Sox will face the departure of their closer, a key reliever and an increasingly valuable starting pitcher.

They’ll also face the potential of losing Price, who has the right to opt out of his contract. And Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts will only get more expensive in their second and third years of arbitration.

The Red Sox’ contract options for next winter are about as different as they could be. Sale’s is a team option, which will be picked up — barring an injury — without hesitation. Ramirez’ kicks in if he has roughly 500 plate appearances this year, and that’s something the Red Sox will surely avoid if they sign an everyday designated hitter. Price has a player option, and whether he exercises the opt-out likely depends on his health and performance.

For the free agent frenzy of next winter, the Sox will almost certainly have significant money coming off the books, but they could also be faced with massive holes in the bullpen and rotation, while paying more and more to keep their homegrown position players.

2019-20

• Potential free agents: Sale, Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, Mitch Moreland, Tyler Thornburg, Brock Holt

• First-time arbitration: Benintendi, Robby Scott, Marco Hernandez

Before the 2013 season, Sale signed a team-friendly contract worth $32.5 million across five years. The deal included team options for 2018 and 2019. The Sox will take advantage of the final three years of that contract, but when it expires, Sale will hit the market as a 30-year-old surely be among the most coveted pitchers in the game.

Locking him into a longterm agreement beforehand would be difficult and expensive.

But the potential of losing Sale after the 2019 season is only the tip of the iceberg as Porcello also becomes a free agent that winter, meaning four of the Red Sox current starting pitchers have the potential to become free agents in the next two years.

Will top pitching prospects Jay Groome (first pick in 2016) and Tanner Houck (first pick in 2017) be ready to fill the gaps by then? Groome will be 21 at that point, but has thrown just 62 professional innings. Houck will be 23, but he’s made just 10 professional starts.

If the rotation is the biggest uncertainty two years from now, the middle infield is a close second. Bogaerts is currently in his second year of arbitration and has just one more before he hits the open mar- ket. The Red Sox could sign him to an extension before then, but if not, the starting shortstop is on his way out.

Meanwhile, his double play partner, Pedroia, will be 36 years old in the winter of 2019-20. He’ll still have two years left on his contract, but will he be able to handle an everyday second base workload at that point?

Replacing Moreland and Thornburg may depend on the development of younger players like Michael Chavis, Sam Travis, Brandon Workman and Austin Maddox.

2020-21

• Potential free agents: Betts, Bradley, Steven Wright, Carson Smith, Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, Workman, Castillo

• First-time arbitration: Devers, Travis, Brian Johnson, Maddox

Does it seem all that long ago that Betts made his first Opening Day roster? It’s been three years, which means he’s right in the middle of his period of team control. Betts is as close to that first Opening Day as he is to becoming a free agent.

Betts already is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to be in line for an $8.2 million contract this offseason, and that figure is only going to get higher and higher the next two years assuming he stays healthy. Betts is going to be expensive regardless, and the Red Sox might commit to a long-term deal before he hits the open market (whether Betts would agree to such a contract is a different question).

Beyond their right fielder, the Sox also have current center fielder Bradley on track to become a free agent after the 2020 season, and left fielder Benintendi will be in his second year of arbitration at that point. Benintendi could be earning eight figures by then.

This homegrown outfield is getting expensive in a hurry, and the youngest member of the current rotation, Eduardo Rodriguez, will be in his last year of arbitration heading into 2021. The Red Sox might not be far from a total rotation makeover.

And who’s going to catch four years from now? Both Vazquez and Leon will be eligible for free agency heading into 2021, and Blake Swihart — assuming he actually makes the roster this spring and has some staying power — will be in his third year of arbitration eligibility after 2020. Catcher is not an immediate need, but it’s also not much of a long-term strength. The Red Sox may be in the market for a catcher in the next year or two.

How much Devers stands to make in his first year of arbitration depends entirely on how well he plays these next three years. The Red Sox have to hope he’s incredible expensive, because that will mean he’s played incredibly well, but it’s hard to know what’s ahead for any 21-year-old kid.

Things can change in a hurry, even on a roster with as many young players as this one.