IN THEIR PRIME
Experts: Real Amazon contenders are Boston, NY, D.C.
Amazon’s lengthy shortlist of the 20 finalists who are still in the hunt for its $5 billion second North American headquarters includes a few obvious front-runners — including Boston — and a bunch of also-rans, experts and oddsmakers say.
“It’s shocking to see a shortlist that’s this long,” said Tom Stringer, a corporate relocation expert with consulting firm BDO. “This is really not a shortlist, but there are a few locations on here that are very clearly shortlisted.”
On Thursday, Amazon released a list of 20 regions that made it past the first cut in the economic development rumble that has taken shape since the e-commerce giant announced its search last September. The list includes Boston, New York, Chicago and Washington, D.C.
Stringer said when he provides a shortlist to clients, he generally only includes three possible locations.
“I think it was a political decision to keep them all in the hunt right now,” said John Boyd, principal at Boyd Co., a corporate relocation firm.
Both Boyd and Stringer said they consider Boston, New York and Washington, D.C., as the top contenders.
In its list of finalists, Amazon included D.C., Northern Virginia and Montgomery County, Md., all of which are in close proximity. Rather than giving an indication that D.C. is the overwhelming favorite, the inclusion of all three likely indicates Amazon is interested in the area, but is unsure which state or city will offer the most in incentives, Stringer said. Similarly, Amazon included both New
York City and Newark, N.J.
Amazon, meanwhile, only included Boston in its list of finalists, but later said bids from Boston and Somerville — a regional proposal that included a site in Boston — will be considered. In either case, the bulk of incentives would likely come from state programs.
Washington, D.C., is seen as a favorite for both business and personal reasons. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ purchase of the Washington Post gives him existing connections to the city. Amazon is also likely to face more and more attention from regulators as it pushes into new industries.
“It’s that notion of influence and proximity with governmental or regulatory bodies that are going to interface with Amazon on multiple levels,” Boyd said.
All 20 regions are hoping to land the economic development prize of the century, with a $5 billion development that will house as many as 50,000 employees. New Jersey has already offered $7 billion in incentives, while Maryland said shortly after the announcement it would give $5 billion in incentives. Boston and state officials have both said they are not prepared to talk about an incentive package yet.
For those looking to put some money on the fight for HQ2 — outside the U.S., of course — oddsmakers are split on Boston’s prospects. At U.K. betting site paddypower.com, Boston has the best odds at 3-1, ahead of Austin and Atlanta at 4-1. Another oddsmaker, Bovada, presents a complete 180, listing Boston in last place, with a 20-1 shot to win.