Team Trump gets it: U.S. can’t withdraw from Syria
The good news is that Team Trump has a new, post-ISIS caliphate strategy for Syria. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson outlined it in a speech late last week at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University.
The bad news is that it’s already being tested.
Tillerson rightfully identified Syria as a “source of severe strategic threats,” despite the demise of ISIS — the previous focus of U.S. policy.
The new plan deals with a variety of pressing problems in Syria.
Here’s my take on the central tenets of Tillerson’s talk:
• Islamic State: ISIS is in intensive care, but it’s not dead — even with the fall of Raqqa. Like its predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq, ISIS could rise from the ashes. Indeed, U.S. forces reportedly struck an ISIS headquarters in Syria’s Euphrates River Valley just this week.
• Al-Qaeda: The terror group is active in Syria. Though al-Qaeda in Syria has reportedly splintered, it’s still looking for places to plan, train and operate — against the U.S., our allies and friends.
• Iran: The ayatollahs are after a foothold in Syria, highlighting concerns about a “northern arch,” a strategic, Iranian-controlled land bridge, spanning the heart of the Middle East from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
• WMD: The Syrian regime used chemical weapons during the ongoing civil war; Damascus reportedly hit civilians with chemical weapons again this week. It previously had atomic ambitions, too. The regime must be denied these weapons.
• Bashar Assad: And speaking of the dictatorial Syrian regime, U.S. policy now is to see President Assad go — not only from power but hopefully off to The Hague to be held accountable for his crimes.
But as we know, other players get a “vote” on U.S. strategy, too.
Turkey put a ding in the new policy last weekend with its intervention into Syria against U.S. allied Kurdish partners, the YPG. Alongside others, the YPG played a key role in aiding the collapse of the ISIS caliphate.
Ankara was able to abide U.S. support for the YPG while ISIS terrorized. With that threat now diminished, it sees the YPG as a supporter of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish terrorist separatist group that operates in Turkey.
Washington understands Ankara’s anxiety. But it also wants the YPG (as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces) to continue clobbering ISIS and help stabilize Syria to advance humanitarian relief efforts and create political leverage against Damascus.
Besides the Turks, the Russians also get a big say in Syria. Moscow is likely reveling in Ankara’s actions, hoping to fuel tension in strained U.S.-Turkish relations and create rifts within its rival, NATO.
The Kremlin also supports and protects the Assad regime; it hoped the White House would lose interest in Syria once ISIS was crushed, bolstering Russia’s influence and preserving its naval and air bases in strategically located Syria.
Learning from flawed, Obama-era policies, including the arbitrary U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the lack of post-bombing political plans for Libya, Team Trump plans to remain involved in Syria at some level — alongside international partners.
No one wants to deepen our duties in the Middle East, but considering the serious security threats and the massive humanitarian challenges, disengaging from Syria at this time just doesn’t seem to make sense.