Bracket secrets revealed
Boston is a pro sports town. It always has been, and probably always will be. We get it, and the success of the pro teams here over the last two decades backs it up.
But every March, the sports world turns its attention to college basketball and the best tournament there is. The NCAA tournament starts tonight in Dayton, with the full slate of games beginning Thursday afternoon. Even the most casual viewers here in Boston will be watching, and more importantly, pretending to know what will happen by filling out a bracket.
You might be a little clueless, though. The Patriots’ Super Bowl run consumed you, the Celtics’ and Bruins’ seasons have overtaken you, and you haven’t really had a chance to watch much college hoops. That’s OK. We’re here for you.
It’s a wide-open tournament this year, again, and no one knows what will happen. But there are still things to know as you fill out your bracket. Here are some trends and tips that can help you dominate your office pool this year.
11 is the new 12
The 12-over-5 upset has been popular since the tournament expanded, and for good reason, but 11-over-6 is what’s hot right now. The No. 11 seed has won three of the four matchups each of the last two seasons, and the No. 6 seed hasn’t swept the matchup since 2004. So you’re going to want to pick an 11.
You can kill two birds with one stone here. One team from the ‘First Four’ has advanced to at least the second round every year since it started in 2011. So in that spirit, No. 11 seed St. Bonaventure — with its dangerous backcourt of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley — is a solid bet to advance from the play-in round, and could easily pick off Florida on Thursday.
Find your Cinderella
The numbers don’t lie. In 31 of the last 33 NCAA tournaments, at least one double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16, and the last time one didn’t survive the first weekend was 2007.
The Nos. 10, 11 and 12 seeds have a combined 63 appearances in the Sweet 16 since the tournament field expanded in 1985, so look there for your sleepers. In addition to St. Bonaventure, New Mexico State, Loyola-Chicago, San Diego State and Providence are teams capable of making a run.
Seventh heaven
This one goes two-fold. No. 7 seeds are on the rise, and No.2 seeds have been hard to trust. The last time all four No. 2 seeds made the Sweet 16 was 2009, and before that? It was 1996. On the flip side, at least one No. 7 has made the Sweet 16 in each of the last four tournaments, with three of them making the Final Four.
Moral of the story: It’s a good bet a No. 7 (or even a No. 10) will be playing during the second weekend. This year, Nevada is a team to watch in the South region, as the Wolf Pack have a favorable road.
Be smart with No. 1
Only once since 1979 have all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. But at the same time, it’s also likely a No. 1 will win it all. In the last 33 years, a No. 1 seed has won the title 20 times.
This year, it’s tricky. Villanova probably has the easiest road to the Final Four, while Virginia, the top overall seed, and Kansas both face potentially difficult road blocks in Arizona and Michigan State/Duke, respectively. Xavier, the weakest of the four No. 1 seeds, has defending champion North Carolina in its region.