Pats need to reinvest
Solder must be main attraction
In the immediate rush to judge the success of the Patriots’ early navigation through free agency, two paths must be considered.
Both involve marquee left tackle Nate Solder.
The prospects for the 2018 season hinge on whether they can stave off the intense competition for Solder during the current negotiating window and after the official start to free agency tomorrow at 4 p.m. If Solder signs elsewhere, which is a legitimate possibility, the Patriots can still construct a Super Bowl contender with their remaining assets.
For weeks, it’s looked like Solder could have a huge market that yields one of the largest contracts ever for a left tackle. He’ll likely draw an offer of at least $12 million annually, and the high bid could conceivably hit $13-14 million.
The latter number would be unprecedented, but it’s rare for a healthy, productive tackle to hit the market in the prime of his career.
All along, the question has been this: How much of a discount would Solder grant the Patriots? If he lands an offer of four years and $52 million, the belief is he would accept less from the Pats, so long as the guaranteed money ensures his ability to remain employed for the duration of the deal.
Know this: Solder prefers to remain with the Patriots, but he is prepared to leave if their offer isn’t competitive. This isn’t just a negotiating tactic, as Solder has contingency plans in place to move his family if it comes to it.
The Patriots can indeed feel confident if they lose Solder, however. That process is just a bit more complicated.
First, tight end Rob Gronkowski has to return after debating a possible retirement. That decision has yet to be relayed.
It’d be disastrous if the Pats lose both Gronk and Solder, but it’s worth guessing the Patriots feel confident about Gronkowski’s return. To judge them by their actions, a source said the Pats haven’t shown an ounce of interest in free agent tight end Trey Burton, while Jimmy Graham’s short list reportedly includes just the Saints and Packers. Theoretically, the Pats would be more proactive in chasing Gronk’s replacement if they believed he’d walk away.
So if Gronkowski returns and the Patriots lose Solder, they could get by for a year with either LaAdrian Waddle or Cameron Fleming, both of whom would be more attractive than any other free agent on the market. It’d be surprising if either required more than the two-year, $9 million extension that right tackle Marcus Cannon signed in 2014.
All the while, the Patriots can draft the longterm answer. It’s worth reinforcing Bill Belichick has never drafted a tackle with the intention of starting him in Week 1, as Solder, Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer didn’t step in as rookies until injuries opened the door. And with the No. 31 pick in the first round, it’s difficult to commit to any particular prospect due to the draft’s unpredictability.
Last year, the Patriots hoped third-rounder Tony Garcia could blossom into a franchise-caliber tackle, but he was shelved in August with blood clots in his lungs. There’s a belief he’ll play again, but the Pats won’t assume anything until he can regain enough weight and strength to hold his own at practice.
From there, the Patriots can use a chunk of their $22 million in cap space — and they can easily create another $15 million through various transactions if need be — to shore up the front seven on defense, whereby they’ve already added defensive tackle Danny Shelton through a trade with the Browns.
It’s hardly a perfect group of free agents on the defensive edge, where the Pats need at least one veteran addition, but they could choose from Adrian Clayborn, Trent Murphy, Jerry Attaochu, Willie Young, Tamba Hali or Pernell McPhee.
At linebacker, the Patriots might be intrigued by Nigel Bradham, Avery Williamson, NaVorro Bowman or Preston Brown. The Pats should add at least one early-down linebacker to take some of the burden off Dont’a Hightower, who should recover from his torn pectoral muscle by training camp.
And because they’re the Patriots, they’re probably cooking up a couple trade ideas that will shock the majority of the league.
This by no means diminishes Solder’s importance to the Patriots’ offensive operation, and that’d be the case if Tom Brady were about to turn 41, 31 or 21.
But if the Patriots lose Solder and keep Gronk, they can reinvest in their front seven and at worst still look like the best team in the AFC in 2018.