Dems may shoot selves in foot over gun control

When Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced he was bailing on his GOP buddies and leaving politics after the next election, I thought of Rev. Johnson from “Blazing Saddles” who, having had the “Good Book” shot out of his hand, leaned over to Sheriff Bart and said: “Son, you’re on your own.”

Could it be, however, that like Rev. Johnson, I was too hasty? That there is a chance for the Republicans to escape what appears to be certain doom? If they do, it will be for the same reason Cleavon Little’s Sheriff Bart escaped the racists of Rock Ridge: his opponents’ stupidity.

I cannot overstate how awful the numbers are for the GOP as we approach the November midterms, starting with history: Since 1980, the party controlling the White House has nearly always gotten (as President Obama put it in 2010) “a shellacking” in their first term midterms.

Reagan’s Republicans lost 26 seats in 1982. Clinton’s Democrats lost 54 seats. And Obama’s first two years wiped out 63 Democrats in the Tea Party wave.

So even in normal political conditions, Republicans would face a bleak November. And in the Trump era, things are far from normal.

Bill Clinton’s approvalrating low point was 37 percent. Obama’s was 38 percent. That’s Trump’s on a good day.

And then there’s the electoral record since Trump took office. Democrats have flipped 43 Republican-held legislative seats at the state and federal level since Trump’s win. Republicans have flipped four (including state Sen. Dean Tran of Fitchburg). And that’s on top of the 37 congressional Republicans (and counting) who aren’t running for re-election.

“OK, Michael, so where’s this good news? This glimmer of hope?” you ask. Hey — I didn’t say the news was good. It’s just looking not-quiteso-bad.

For example, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that Democrats have a four-point advantage, 47-43 percent when registered voters are asked which party they would prefer control Congress. The less-thanbad news? Democrats had a 12-point lead in January.

Meanwhile, Trump’s approval has edged up close to 42 percent. That’s practically sky high for The Donald. Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics tells me he considers 42 percent to be the “Mendoza Line” of presidential approval ratings — the minimum required to keep your party in play in the midterms.

And while Democrats still have the motivation, Republicans appear to have the money. Last month the Republican National Committee announced a record-setting February — $12.8 million. This far in the 201718 cycle, the RNC reports they’ve raised almost $160 million and have $42 million in cash on hand, with no debt.

In 2017, the Democratic National Committee took in just $66 million, had $6.5 million in cash available, but also owed $6.1 million.

Money isn’t everything, but it matters. And you know who else is having a banner year: the NRA. Donations to the NRA’s political action committee tripled in February, from $250,000 to $779,000 as Democrats and the media went on the attack in the wake of the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. The National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar is among the analysts who see the gun issue as part of the reason Republicans and Trump are trending upward.

When the media starts bashing gun owners and publishing op-eds by former Supreme Court justices recommending repeal of the Second Amendment, gun owners turn up their TVs and start paying attention. And when Democrats start talking about imposing new gun laws, gun owners turn out and start voting.

History is still against the Republicans holding the house. At Politico yesterday, longtime Republican campaign guru Alex Castellanos predicted “a 40- to 50-seat pounding” for the GOP.

But if Democrats keep pushing to the Left, if they run on the mantra of “Raise Taxes, Take Guns and Get Trump,” they may, like the mob in Rock Ridge, wind up standing around looking dumb and wondering how this election got away.