Now brutal fight for Kavanaugh’s confirmation gets in gear

WASHINGTON — The road to Supreme Court confirmation for Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s pick to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, promises to be rocky as senators ready to grill the nominee on abortion, health care, the Mueller investigation and more — all as midterms loom.

But experts said the odds still favor the longtime Washington insider, who worked in George W. Bush’s White House and also helped lead the independent counsel investigation into former President Bill Clinton.

“Assuming nothing comes out about him that will be so controversial that it would put off the American public, this nominee has a very good chance of getting confirmed,” said Paul M. Collins Jr., a University of Massachusetts Amherst professor specializing in Supreme Court confirmations.

Trump touted Kavanaugh’s “impeccable credentials, unsurpassed qualifications and a proven commitment to equal justice under the law.”

But Kavanaugh’s long record both in the White House and on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals also creates a lengthy paper trail, giving supporters and opponents ample material — including fodder over a divisive issue: abortion.

Kavanaugh’s dissent in a high profile ruling that allowed a teenager held by immigration officials to be released in order to obtain an abortion — a ruling Kavanaugh criticized as allowing “abortion on demand” — is simultaneously seen by Democrats as hostile to abortion rights and by conservatives as not tough enough.

That ruling, as well as his votes in cases involving the Affordable Care Act will create a combustible atmosphere during confirmation hearings, as all eyes focus on a handful of moderate Republicans and Democrats from states Trump won in the 2016 election. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) predicted a “rough, tough, down in the dirt, ear-pulling, nose-biting fight.”

Republicans have only a single-seat majority in the Senate, making moderate Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) — who said she would oppose a nominee hostile to upholding Roe v. Wade — and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska targets by Democrats and advocacy groups as potential pickoff votes.

They both declined invitations by the White House to attend last night’s announcement, a move designed to avoid signaling their support. Others who passed up the invitation were Democrats who voted in favor of Trump’s first Supreme Court appointee Justice Neil Gorsuch — and who also face re-election bids in November.