SECOND HALF STORIES APLENTY
These Sox chasing awards, thinking trades
With only 62 games left after Saturday for the Red Sox to win the division and establish crucial home-field advantage in the American League, we did a thorough analysis of second-half storylines as we look ahead to the most exciting, and most concerning, stories to pay attention to down the stretch.
EXCITING Mookie Betts and the MVP race.
With all the attention on
Mike Trout, Betts’ monster first half might have been overlooked outside New England. Judging by baseball writers’ commentary, Trout looked like the consensus pick to win his third MVP award at the All-Star break.
In reality, this is going to be decided in the second half. According to FanGraphs, Trout, Betts and Jose Ramirez each finished the first half worth 6.5 wins above replacement, an insane number given only eight players (and two pitchers) eclipsed that during the entire 2017 season.
Trout: 71 R, 25 HR, 50 RBI, 15-for-16 SB, .310 AVG, .454 OBP, 1.060 OPS
Betts: 79 R, 23 HR, 51 RBI, 18-for-20 SB, .359 AVG, .448 OBP, 1.139 OPS
Ramirez: 68 R, 29 HR, 70 RBI, 20-for-23 SB, .302 AVG, .401 OBP, 1.029 OPS
All three of them are considered excellent defenders.
A case could certainly be made that Betts had the best first half, especially since he had more than 60 fewer plate appearances than each of them due to an injury.
But if Betts finishes with an average near .350, the award should almost definitely be his. The only other two players to finish a season with at least a .350 average and 30 home runs since steroid testing began are
Albert Pujols in 2008 and Josh Hamilton in 2010. Both of them won the MVP.
J.D. Martinez and the Triple Crown.
In 2012, when Miguel Cabrera won the first Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967, Cabrera entered the All-Star break with 18 home runs. Fourteen players had more, led by Hamilton and Jose
Bautista with 27. Cabrera’s 71 RBI ranked second. His .324 average ranked 12th.
It took a brilliant second half, and a little help from his competitors, to pull off one of the rarest feats in baseball. He hit .337 with 26 homers and 68 RBI in just 75 games to finish at .330, 44 and 139.
Martinez is in way better position. He entered the All-Star break tied for first in home runs (29), first in RBI (80) by eight, and third in batting average (.328), trailing only Jose Altuve (.332) and Betts (.359).
It looks like his own teammate might have the best chance of ruining his Triple Crown chances, but Martinez has positioned himself well. If he does win, it’ll be the fourth Triple Crown won by a Red Sox player, joining Yaz and Ted Williams
(1942, 1947). No other team has four Triple Crowns since the start of the 1900s.
Trade deadline inching closer: What will the Red Sox do?
It’s hard to pick on the bullpen with a 3.27 ERA, fifth-best in the majors, that only recently got Tyler Thornburg back from a long battle with thoracic outlet syndrome.
Craig Kimbrel is still a force (though his walk rate has almost doubled from last year) and Matt Barnes has taken a giant step forward into one of the elite set-up men in baseball (just one home run allowed in 42 innings). But something about the late innings still seems uncertain.
Will Joe Kelly be back in form by playoff time? Will Thornburg still be healthy and effective? It’s a big risk to rely on them, and considering how well Dave Dombrowski has maneuvered the trade deadline the last two years, the expectation is that he’ll once again secure a very good reliever at a modest cost.
The more interesting areas of need are the back end of the starting rotation and second/third base. It seems inevitable that they’ll have to get at least one more infielder. Ra
fael Devers is on the DL with shoulder inflammation and it’s no guarantee he’ll return as a productive player soon. Brock
Holt can fill in nicely at second or third, but Edu
ardo Nunez — playing all year on a bad knee — still hasn’t been a productive player. Triple-A Pawtucket has nobody the Red Sox should be able to rely upon in a pennant race.
Behind Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello, the Sox right now must rely on Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez in the rotation. That might be OK for a little while, and with Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz slowly working their way back, the Sox should be safe avoiding upgrades for the time being. Worst-case scenario, they’re forced to add a depth starter who clears waivers in August.
A moment of appreciation for Steve Pearce.
Rarely does a late-June trade of a 35-year-old cause such a dramatic increase in lineup depth, but that’s exactly what Pearce did for the Red Sox on June 28.
It’s simple, really. Pearce destroys lefthanded pitching and has better than most hitters for some time now. He’s hitting .339 with a 1.019 OPS against them this year, .265 with an .843 OPS in his career.
On the flip side, the Red Sox had a tremendous need. They ranked 29th in OPS against lefty pitching on May 28, the day
Hanley Ramirez was designated for assignment. And while they started to turn that around in June, Pearce gives them a true threat to put in the three- or fourhole against lefties while lengthening the lineup.
And then there’s the Mitch Moreland conundrum: How much do you play him? He slowed down last year with too much playing time, though a broken foot didn’t help his cause, and his production against left-handed pitching has been inconsistent. With Pearce around, he has a true platoon partner.
CONCERNING Eduardo Rodriguez and the history of sprained ankles for pitchers.
Sprained ankles are common for position players, and it makes sense if you think about all the defensive and base running plays that present a risk of injury. But sprained ankles for pitchers are rare.
Rodriguez suffered one just before the All-Star break and the results were worse than the Red Sox feared. He has serious ligament damage in his right ankle, on his landing foot. Ligament damage can often be more frustrating than a clean break because it doesn’t heal easily in a cast. Instead, it often lingers. Rodriguez will be in a boot for two weeks, then it’s anyone’s guess how effective he might be when he tries to pitch again.
Rodriguez was just the fourth pitcher to hit the DL with a sprained ankle this year, and the sixth pitcher to do so in the last three years. There aren’t a lot of success stories.
This year, Luiz Gohara missed one month with a sprained ankle and has a 5.95 ERA with the Braves. The Giants’ Johnny
Cueto missed only 10 days, but three starts later he hurt his elbow. Dylan Bundy was having a good season (3.75 ERA) with the Orioles before missing two weeks with a sprained ankle, and has a 12.27 ERA in two starts since.
The best example is Sergio Romo, who missed 10 days in June 2017 with an ankle sprain, then posted a 2.00 ERA over 31 relief appearances upon his return.
All this to say that Rodriguez’ recovery is anything but a slam dunk.
Did Sale save enough gas?
Sale’s first two years in Boston look very similar on paper, but different in how the results came to be.
In 2017, Sale went nuts in his first 10 starts, offering some of his highest velocity numbers of the season while piling up strikeouts. He also threw a lot of pitches. By June and July, his velocity was down, he started getting hit and he ultimately lost a narrow Cy Young Award race to Corey Kluber. Worse, he wasn’t fresh in September and October. SALE
This year, Sale took it easy his first 10 starts, showing some of his lowest velocity numbers of the season. (He averaged just 90 mph on his fastball in an April game against the Orioles.) But by mid-May he was averaging 97 mph; by midJune, 99 mph.
In total, Sale ended up throwing 129 innings and 2,025 pitches through 20 starts this year, compared to 1411⁄3 innings and 2,196 pitches through 20 starts last year.
But with the velocity numbers much higher this time around, it’s fair to wonder how much energy he’s spent to get to the same points. And how much gas he might have saved for the end of the season. Relying on Jackie Bradley Jr. on offense means relying on Martinez on defense.
The Red Sox have two very capable backup center fielders in Betts and Andrew Benintendi, but whenever they play one of them in center to rest Bradley, Martinez plays the outfield.
Depending which defensive numbers one comes across, the readings on Martinez’ defensive ability varies, but it’s always in the range of very bad to average, and never really above. He’s proven to be quite adequate out in the corner spots this year, making the occasional blunder to go with the occasional nice play. But if Bradley runs into another long slump at the plate as the playoffs get closer, will the Red Sox prioritize outfield defense or total offensive production?
Assuming they add one more bat via trade, they should have options at DH on days when Martinez plays the field. Pearce is one. Whomever they might add could be another.
But if they don’t add anybody, and if Pearce proves to be most effective only against lefties, Alex Cora’s hands may be tied to Bradley, who struck out 39 times in a span of 91 at-bats in April-May.
On the plus side, Bradley finished the first half hitting .323 with 10 extrabase hits in his last 18 games.