A package deal on offense
Pats must alter groupings early
When the Dolphins visit the Patriots in late September, Danny Amendola will be suiting up in the visitors locker room and Julian Edelman will be watching from afar as his four-game suspension winds down.
The opening month will mark uncharted territory for the Patriots, who during the past four years have almost always had the luxury of Edelman and/or Amendola in the lineup.
Amendola’s presence on third down is irreplaceable. Edelman’s ability to create separation within seconds allows the Patriots quick-hitting approach to prosper. It’s not hyperbole to suggest that these two players have been the foundation of the Pats’ absurdly efficient passing offense.
Over the past four seasons, the Pats played three games without Edelman and Amendola. They lost two. They were 37-6 when both Edelman and Amendola played. At minimum, they needed one healthy.
So what will the offense look like in September when the Patriots don’t have either?
“It’ll be interesting to see what kind of personnel they come out with, who are going to be the guys out there?” said former Pats receiver and current Texans assistant Wes Welker, whose team travels to Foxboro for Week 1 of the regular season. “Are they going to go two tight ends instead of three wide receivers and a tight end? What’s going to be their best personnel group?”
The most common group here and across the NFL has been “11” personnel, comprised of three receivers, one running back and one tight end. That probably won’t change. But the frequency with which the Pats utilize other groupings will likely be adjusted. The two tight-end set (“12” personnel) is intriguing, and the idea of playing two running backs together, a seldom-used but highly effective lineup, becomes increasingly appealing.
“If you just pull up all the plays of that personnel grouping at the end of the year, they’re pretty successful,” said ESPN analyst and former Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. “We used to call that pony — two tailbacks in the backfield. And the Patriots have got guys. The versatility in their running back corps is a real weapon for them.”
Noted former Pats defensive end Rob Ninkovich: “You don’t see that (formation) too often, but you could see the Pats in it. You’ve got to have two catch-and-run type backs. There’s not a lot of teams that have multiple guys with those skills.”
The Pats are loaded in the backfield, even with the departure of Dion Lewis. James White is as polished a receiver as any back in the league, Rex Burkhead is a unique with diverse skills, and first-round pick Sony Michel is a potential stud.
A year ago, the Patriots turned to a two-tailback formation on 55 snaps. Tom Brady completed 40-of-50 pass attempts for 478 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Even though the personnel grouping creates low-risk throws, Brady still delivered a remarkable 9.56 yards per attempt on those plays. For context, Drew Brees led the NFL averaging 8.09 yards per attempt for the Saints in 2017.
Rob Gronkowski’s 33yard touchdown in Week 6 against the Jets came out of pony personnel. On the play, White stayed in to handle a fifth pass rusher. Lewis ran an out and was picked up by a cornerback. The middle of the field was vacant. Gronkowski smoked safety Jamal Adams and high-stepped into the end zone.
In Week 12 against the Dolphins, the Pats flexed White out wide and threw a screen to Burkhead, who jetted upfield for 23 yards.
In Week 2 against the Saints — the only game Amendola missed — the Patriots got extra creative. On one play, Lewis motioned into the backfield alongside White. Brady faked a jet-sweep handoff to Lewis, who continued into the flat. Saints linebacker A.J. Klein was distracted by the play action, and White breezed past him for an easy 24yard connection down the middle of the field.
“If you have two backs on the field and you have your two receivers, that gives you two extra guys that can give you a target that’s not down the field, but a quick little dump-off,” Ninkovich said. “A linebacker on a back is a hard matchup.”
Teams that play man coverage get in a particular bind against this two-running back formation.
“If you have bunch receivers — tight splits — and you have split backs, say they’re both going to the flat, you’re man-to-man on the back and you have all this traffic,” Ninkovich explained. “You’re trying to run through receivers that are running crossing routes that are picking you off. Get those linebackers in a pickle, get them running into each other, and throw that quick pass. It’s a high percentage play, it’s a low risk.”
The counter, Ninkovich said, is to send an extra pass rusher so that one of the backs is forced to stay in as a pass protector.
No, the Patriots won’t use this look on half their snaps. Probably not even one-quarter. But given their immense success with it in 2017, and given the fact that few NFL teams use this as part of their game plan, opposing defenses might struggle to defend a backfield of Michel and Burkhead together.
“It puts a tremendous amount of stress on a defense if they haven’t practiced against it,” Hasselbeck said.
Hasselbeck isn’t sure which personnel groups the Patriots will favor in the opening month but believes they will have plenty of surprises for the season opener against the Texans.
“They’re going to know Houston’s defense better than Houston’s defense is going to know them, because Edelman and Amendola have been such huge parts of their offense and their production,” Hasselbeck said. “They’re not going to show in training camp what they’re planning on doing. I would expect that you’ll see something different in Week 1.”