Super matchup without doubt
This year’s September showdown between the Red Sox and Astros does not have the drama and quirkiness of 2017, when the teams played four games to end the regular season and then four more games in the Division Series.
Still, the three-game set this weekend should offer the next-best thing to a playoff series before the real chance the teams do meet again in October.
Much changed for each since they split their four-game series in Houston May 30-June 3.
Here’s what to look for:
• Astros are not in peak form. Houston actually has one more win, 87, this season than they did a year ago, but while they clearly are among the four elite teams in the American League, they are not the well-rounded behemoth — not yet, at least — they were a year ago. Their pitching is dominant but their offense is ranked below the Red Sox, Indians and Yankees, and players like 2017 MVP Jose Altuve are not delivering overpowering numbers..
“Offensively, I do feel last year everything clicked,” said Red Sox manager Alex Cora, the bench coach in Houston in 2017. “There were career years everywhere — (Josh) Reddick, Marwin (Gonzalez). Health was a big part of what happened last year. This year, Altuve got hurt, Carlos (Correa) got hurt, he’s not swinging the bat the way he did last year. Marwin, who’s hurt now, not swinging the bat the same way.”
• Division is on the line.
The Oakland A’s are no fluke, and despite no more head-to-head games after the teams split six games since the middle of August, they are well within striking distance of the AL West title if the Astros blow their current 31⁄2-game lead. The Astros had a 141⁄2-game lead a year ago. Though the Red Sox hold a 91⁄2-game lead in the AL East, they are not throwing their “B” lineup out there this weekend. They want the Astros to squirm more.
“There’s bragging rights there.
I’m not going to make it easy on them,” said Cora. “They’re one of the best teams in the big leagues. For how good I feel about them and the friendship and everything else, they’re in a pennant race. It’s not that we owe Oakland anything. I think it would be good for them to push them.”
• With one big exception, both are healthy.
Mookie Betts was out with his abdominal issue during the four games in Houston earlier this season, and so were Astros right fielder Reddick and catcher Brian McCann. All three are back, plus each team is returning a recently wounded starter, with David Price (wrist) throwing tonight and Charlie Morton (shoulder discomfort) tomorrow.
The Red Sox say Chris Sale (shoulder) is going to toss a bullpen tomorrow, so that would seem to preclude him from making his first appearance as the “opener” in this series. We’ll see what happens.
• Astros bullpen is better.
No matter how you feel about the Astros trading for Roberto Osuna and the allegations of domestic assault that involve him, he is pitching well, as is the other key pickup, former Red Sox farmhand Ryan Pressly. The two helped turn the Astros bullpen into the best in the business in the second half of the season. Osuna has a 1.93 ERA with 15 strikeouts and two walks in 14 appearances, and Pressly has been even better with a 1.15 ERA and 0.447 WHIP, no walks and 22 strikeouts in his 152⁄3 innings.
Considering the Red Sox bullpen is forever under a microscope, the differences here offer the biggest distinguishing characteristics between the teams.
• Starting pitching is phenomenal. Game 1 features a one-day AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole against Price. Cole is a top 10 pitcher now, while Price has been pitching like an ace over his last seven starts with that 1.62 ERA. There will be intrigue about Price’s effectiveness, just as there will be with Morton in Game 2, which will mark the second start for Eduardo Rodriguez since his injury. Rodriguez looked very sharp in his first game back in Chicago. Dallas Keuchel was sharper in July than in August but had a scoreless outing in his last start, while Rick Porcello tends to pitch his best against the best teams. Their matchup in Game 3 looks promising.
• Best offense vs. best pitching. The Red Sox score the most runs in baseball — 5.43 a game. The Astros are ranked fourth at 4.96. You can flip those rankings for all teams when it comes to pitching: the Astros allow the fewest runs, 3.29 a game, while the Sox allow the fourth fewest, 3.85. With Justin Verlander out of this series, it’s hard to give either team an edge in starting pitching, but the Red Sox have the better lineup, one that will be tested against Houston’s much-improved bullpen.
One team is going to win this series, and also the season series as well. That will count as bragging rights if and when the clubs meet again next month.
“They’re still a great team, a very complete team,” said Cora. “They can beat you in a lot of ways. Like I told you guys in Houston, we feel like we match up with them and we’ll see what happens.”