Plenty of potential
Past stats offer window to playoff fates
The wait for October is almost over. And while the 105-andcounting wins for the 2018 Red Sox qualifies as a significant historical accomplishment for the franchise, it won’t become an unqualified
BASEBALL NOTES Michael Silverman
success unless the team plays deep into the fall. For assorted reasons, an unstoppable juggernaut they are not — especially against potential playoff foes. Their likely Division Series foes in New York and Oakland have played them tightly. Past them, we recognize how stacked the Astros and Indians are, never mind their postseason experience. Friday’s come-from-victory in Cleveland made the Red Sox 17-17 against those four teams this season, and there’s enough head-to-head data between them all — both career and recent matchups — to provide you comfort and keep you up at night.
Against the Yankees
On the Plus Side: In the bullpen, Steven Wright’s three scoreless innings in Thursday’s AL East clincher were a first by a Red Sox reliever this season, but the 1-for-10 effort from the lineup was similar to his lifetime work 7-for54 (.130) against them. Matt Barnes has had control issues against New York (3 walks, 3 strikeouts) this season, but the Yankees are 2-for-14 against him. Nate Eovaldi, formerly of Tampa Bay, has pitched well against them — just one home run allowed, with 17 strikeouts, four walks and a .232 batting average this year. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez are a combined 3-for-20 against him. Starter Chris Sale and Rick Porcello are stalwarts against the Yankees. This year, Sale’s held this lineup to 9-for-43 (.193) and a .501 OPS with two homers allowed. Porcello’s been even better: 12-for-79 (.152), .447 OPS, one homer. And their pitchers want no part of Mookie Betts. He has four homers and a brisk .408 average (29-for-71) against them this season. He owns Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia, and is 4-for-8 off Aroldis Chapman. The Red Sox hitter who enjoys the most success against J.A. Happ is Steve Pearce, with five homers off him. On the Negative Side: Use Heath Hembree sparingly, if at all. Thursday night’s Stanton grand slam was not an outlier, as he’s been clobbered to the tune of a .409 (9-for-22) average this season and .289 (13for-45) overall. The Yankees are 7-for-21 (.333) off Joe Kelly, with Judge 3-for-4. `Nuff said. And you knew this was coming: David Price does not prosper against the Bronx Bombers. This year they’ve hit him at a .309 (21-for-68) clip with an incredible nine homers. His career mark against the current Yankees hitters is worth mentioning: .300 (71-for-237), with Sanchez (6-for-13), Didi Gregorius (13-for-35), Austin Romine (7-for-16) and Stanton (6-for-19) giving him the most trouble. Eduardo Rodriguez used to be good against them, but he has been bad his last two times out. Something that hasn’t received much notice? Xander Bogaerts does not perform well against New York. This season he is 10-for-51 (.196) against them, and is a .265 hitter (36-for-218) against them in his career, with only a pair of home runs. Against bullpen studs of Zach Britton, Dave Robertson, Chapman, Chad Green and Dellin Betances, Bogaerts is 5-for-50 (.100). Red Sox hitters against Happ this season: 11-for-63 (.175), .228 in his career.
Against the A's
The Red Sox won just twice in six games against the A's, a team they see rarely because of their AL West residency. That means count a few more grains of salt when it comes to analyzing these matchups. On the Plus Side: Yes, Kelly has enjoyed success against these A’s, holding them to a .143 batting average (5-for-35) through the years. Jed Lowrie is 0-for-6 against him, and Jonathan Lucroy is 3-for-14. Barnes has held them to a .182 batting average in his career,
1-for-8 this season. Marcus Semien is 1-for-8 off Barnes with four strikeouts. Both Sale and Price have allowed an identical .603 OPS in their careers against Oakland hitters, with Sale holding them to a .193 (33-for-171) batting average and Price’s foes are at .224 (19-for-85). Khris Davis is 2-for-15 against Sale, while the Matts — Chapman and Olson — are a combined 1-for-10. Semien went 4-for-6 against Sale this season, but everybody else was 4-for-38 (.105). Lowrie is 4-for-23 off of Price, and Davis is 0-for-12 against Eduardo Rodriguez. Unfortunately, the Red Sox similarly struggled against A’s pitching this season, getting no-hit on April 21 — by Sean Manaea, who’s out for the season — and scoring just 22 runs in six games. Mitch Moreland saw plenty of Oakland pitching in his Rangers days and hit them well, to the tune of .303 (28-for-92) in his career. (He’s 6-for-14 this year.) Andrew Benintendi has hit well against the A’s in limited action at 11-for-38 (.289), with Betts at .278 (22-for-79). On the Negative Side: In limited exposure, Craig Kimbrel has not thrived. Oakland hitters are at .294 (5-for-17) against him, with Davis 2-for5 and Olson sporting a homer off him this year. Oakland hitters also see the ball well against Hembree (6-for-20). Porcello got hit hard by the A’s this season, allowing nine hits in 26 at-bats and a homer apiece to Matt Joyce and Olson. Rodriguez has mixed results — .194 career against them, but 6-for-20 this season. Jackie Bradley Jr. went 2-for-14 this year and has never homered against the A’s, while Bogaerts is a .242
Against the Indians
(Stats include postseason performance, but are prior to this weekend, a series in which both teams — divisions clinched — are trying not to give away too much extra performance data.) On the Plus Side: Ryan Brasier held them hitless in five at-bats earlier this year. That’s encouraging. Wright’s career mark against them is .212 (7-for-33) and he did not face them in the series at Fenway. Kimbrel did not face them either. Over his career, they have hit him at a .205 (8-for-39) clip, with just a Francisco Lindor home run. Barnes (0-for-4) has been good in limted action. Price held the Indians to just four hits in his start against them this season, dropping their career numbers against him to .227 with seven home runs. (Encarnacion has four of those.) Jose Ramirez and Lindor are a combined 4-for-27, and Brandon Guyer (at 6-for-18) is the only Tribe player batting .300 or better against him with more than 15 at-bats. Rodriguez has never faced any of the Indians, so in theory that should work to his advantage. J.D. Martinez hits .348 (47for-135) against the Indians with eight home runs, and was 6-for-16 (.375) this season before the weekend. He hits Trevor Bauer (9-for-22), Carlos Carrasco (10-for-27) and Corey Kluber (9-for-31) very well. Betts is a .350 hitter against Kluber (7-for-20), and Bogaerts is a career .284 (25-for-88) against the Tribe. On the Negative Side: Plenty to chat about here. Eovaldi was hit hard this season by the Indians (.385, 10-for-26) and hasn’t been much better in his career (.323, 31-for-96). Encarnacion is extremely happy to face Hembree — he is 5-for10 with four home runs — so don’t look for that to happen. Josh Donaldson hammers Kelly (12-for-22, with two home runs). And Sale has struggled against the Indians. Includ- ing Friday’s short start they have hit him at a .293 (83-for-283) clip — they were regular foes during his time with the White Sox. (Donaldson has struck out nine times, but tagged him for a fifth homer on Friday.) Ramirez is 8-for-21, Lindor 10-for-24, and Encarnacion 6-for19. Porcello hasn’t been any better: a .932 OPS and .325 batting average against. Melky Cabrera has been particularly cruel to Porcello: 17-for-31, or .548. Bradley has been held to a .233 batting average against the Indians through the years. Moreland has been worse: .213, 16-for-75.
Against the Astros
On the Plus Side: Kimbrel has no more than five plate appearances worth of exposure to any one Houston hitter, but they are 7-for-45 (.156) collectively against him. George Springer is 1-for-9 against Eovaldi. This season, the Astros were only 3-for-15 against Wright and 2-for-10 against Barnes, mirroring successful career track records. Houston hitters are just .226 in their careers against Price and 7-for48 (.146) this season. Sale’s numbers took a hit, rising to a .674 OPS, in his Division Series stinker last year. They are .248 hitters against him lifetime. They were 6-for-24 against him this year, with Jose Altuve — who homered twice off Sale in that Game 1— Evan Gattis and Alex Bregman (he hit a home run, too) going 1-for-9. Betts is a .364 career hitter against Houston and likes to face Dallas Keuchel (4-for-9). Bogaerts is at .318 and enjoys facing Charlie Morton (7for-14). On the Negative Side: Keep Kelly out of the picture. He gave up seven hits in 15 at-bats this season, pumping their career numbers against him to .338 (27-for-80) with four home runs. Wright allows a .317 (20-for-63) average, with Altuve (5-for-10), Springer (3-for-6) and Josh Reddick (4-for-11) feasting on the knuckleballer. Barnes has been hit at a .289 clip (11-for-38), and Eovaldi gave up four of his six career home runs to Houston this season. Houston hitters went 6-for-17 (.353) against Rodriguez in his start this season. That was an improvement. In his career they have hit him at a .413 (19-for-46), 1.217 OPS clip. Yuck. Martinez went 6-for-28 with two homers this season, and is 22-for87 (.253) against Houston pitchers. Bradley Jr. completes his 4-for-4 appearance in this category with a 20for-94 career mark (.213).