Cowboys OK vs. Iowa St.
It’s been tough finding any momentum in another unpredictable college football season. Every step forward is followed by two in the other direction, including last week’s stinker. As usual, follow these selections at your own risk.
PROPHET MARGIN Chris Letourneau
Oklahoma State jumped back into the final spot of the Top 25 on the strength of an impressive road blowout of Kansas. The Cowboys’ quest for the Big 12 title hit a snag with a loss to Texas Tech, but they’ve been energized by a healthy Justice Hill, who ran for 189 yards and a touchdown last week and is a perfect complement to the improved passing game led by quarterback Taylor Cornelius.
Tomorrow, the Cowboys host Iowa State, which is averaging 299.5 yards of offense per game. That ranks 122nd out of 129 FBS teams. Yes, they have played some tough opponents, and I’m aware this game has been decided by a touchdown or less the past three meetings, but the Cyclones are more like a gentle breeze when they have the ball. What’s worse, their defense is banged up and will have a difficult time keeping Cornelius and Hill away from the end zone.
The Cowboys have big games down the road against Texas, Oklahoma and West Virginia, but for those contests to really matter, they need to take care of business here. The Texas Tech loss was a loud wake-up call, and Oklahoma State, favored by 91⁄2 points, will dominate Iowa State from start to finish. In other games:
TONIGHT Georgia Tech (-41⁄2) at Louisville — The Cardinals offense is not good, scoring three points two weeks ago at Virginia and committing three turnovers in a loss to Florida State last week. The Yellow Jackets option attack will control the clock, and the defense will force some mistakes in a twotouchdown road win.
TOMORROW Alabama (-35) at Arkansas — Nick Saban and the top-ranked Tide have called off the dogs in every game this season except their 45-23 rout of Texas A&M, which really wasn’t that close. This week they will leave the starters in and feast on a horrific Arkansas passing game. ’Bama QB Tua Tagovailoa will pad his Heisman resume with a huge afternoon.
Texas (+7) vs. Oklahoma — The No. 19 Longhorns have covered the past four Red River Shootouts as huge underdogs, and this year they have a chance to actually win because of their improved defense. The No. 7 Sooners will score, but this is the best defense they’ve seen this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has allowed 23.2 points per game against inferior opponents.
Illinois (-6) at Rutgers — This line has jumped quite a bit, but the Illini still are the right pick. Illinois coach Lovie Smith, firmly on the hot seat, has had two weeks to prepare for a revenge game (Rutgers won last year, 35-24). The Knights offense is a complete mess, having scored just 47 points the past four games.
Boston College at N.C. State (under 58) — These teams haven’t topped 44 total points in one of their meetings since 2013. The Eagles offense will be slowed by injuries to AJ Dillon and Jeff Smith, even if they play, and their defense is good enough to contain the No. 23 Wolfpack.
South Florida at UMass (over 71) — After three straight close games, the Bulls offense is licking its chops for this chance to pile up points. Meanwhile, the Minutemen have shown the ability to score even in defeat. A 63-28 final is possible.
LSU at Florida (over 431⁄2)—
This game has been a grind the past two years, which is why the total is so low, but the No. 5 Tigers seem to have found an offensive rhythm with QB Joe Burrow, and the Gators have the ability to keep up even if there are some early touchdowns. Expect a close battle, and with overtime a possibility, I’ll take the over in any college game with a low total.
Virginia Tech (+7) vs. Notre Dame — This might be the last real hurdle for the No. 6 Irish on their way to the College Football Playoff. Kudos to the No. 24 Hokies on rebounding from the loss to Old Dominion and beating Duke with a backup QB, who played well. They’ll keep this one close at home in prime time.
Stanford (-4) vs. Utah —
The Utes have been completely underwhelming the entire season, and the No. 14 Cardinal are in a perfect bounce-back scenario at home after losing to Notre Dame.
Last week: 2-8-0 Season: 12-22-2