Controversy may boost Diehl’s chances
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren's widely-panned rollout of her DNA test showing a tiny fraction of Native American heritage could hurt her 2020 chances and even turn off voters in her re-election race in Massachusetts.
Warren's highly orchestrated attempt to blunt criticism of her claims of Cherokee ancestry, which included a slick, five-minute video and testimonials from family members, was an obvious move to shore up her national ambitions.
The presentation seemed aimed at easing concerns of Democratic activists and liberals, who she needs in her 2020 campaign.
But with even some Democrats expressing disapproval at Warren's tactics, her plan may not be working — in fact it could backfire.
And what the DNA test clearly wasn't aimed at is voters in Massachusetts.
Warren probably figures she already has her race won, with polls showing her holding a comfortable lead over Republican Geoff Diehl. But Diehl could still embarrass the former Harvard Law professor with a stronger than expected showing of more than 40 percent.
Diehl has been reluctant to delve into Warren's Indian controversy but that could change.
The Whitman state representative needs an opening to chip away at Warren's lead and she may have handed him one.
Polls already show that most Massachusetts voters don't want Warren to run for president, but she appears to be plowing ahead anyway, and the DNA test was another clear indication of her White House wanderings.
If Diehl presents the DNA test as another way that she's ignoring her home state constituents, the strategy could be a winner.
Massachusetts voters are savvy — they know when they're being ignored or played — and Diehl could exploit that to gain some independent support in the November election.
The DNA controversy could even spur President Trump to make a trip to the Bay State to help out Diehl. Trump is clearly engaged now in Warren's Native American heritage drama and has an interest in seeing her damaged by the controversy.
A visit to Massachusetts to ratchet up his feud with Warren may not help Diehl much but it would definitely draw national interest to the race, something that's so far been clearly lacking.
National conservative groups haven’t poured any money into the Warren race to try and ding her up, but the renewed attention to her heritage may make them rethink that strategy.