Won’t be over till it’s over, predictors warn

WASHINGTON — The tide may be high for Democrats’ hopes for a blue wave in the House tonight, according to most election forecasters. But then again, there may not even be a blue ripple.

And a red seawall will protect the GOP’s hold on the Senate, pollsters say. Unless it gets washed out.

A host of factors heading into today’s historic midterm elections have election prognosticators serving their predictions with a large side of caveats. Long story short: Anything can happen.

Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to gain control of the house, but “no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats,” said Nate Silver, election forecaster at FiveThirtyEight, on ABC’s “This Week.” “Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world.”

Polling limitations are among many variables that make predictions hard today. It’s the first major election since President Trump’s election and the first since the massive Women’s March and subsequent rise of the #MeToo movement. Trump, a divisive candidate whose deep involvement in midterm campaigning has served to energize base voters in both parties, is testing his impact on the races for the House, Senate and governors’ offices. The economy is good, while the divisions over race and ethnicity are bad.

That opens the door for surprises.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics’ “Crystal Ball” predicts Democrats will pick up 34 House seats — 11 more than the party needs to take control — and that Republicans will pick up a Senate seat, giving the GOP a 2-seat majority in the upper chamber.

But things could still “go haywire.”

“We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats,” wrote Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik in the center’s final midterm forecast yesterday.

A number of factors weigh in Democrats’ favor, including the fact that health care emerged as the top concern among voters in battleground states — an issue Democratic candidates have focused on. It’s also a watershed year for women candidates and candidates of color, which could boost Democrats — if their turnout operations are effective.

Factors in Republicans’ favor include the strong economy and a focus on immigration, which has motivated Republican support and pushed higher GOP early voting turnout numbers in some districts.

When it comes to the Trump effect, that’s still unknown.